Tennis best bets and predictions for Thursday, August 17th
The US Open is now a matter of weeks away, which means tennis season is really heating up. There have been a lot of big tournaments over the last couple of weeks, and VSiN is here to provide you with tennis best bets on everything that’s left before we get to Flushing Meadows. With that in mind, keep reading to get my picks for Thursday, August 17th. This week, the focus is on the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati. I’ll look to make picks on both the men and the women, and I’ll probably be adding more to these columns each day. So, make sure you refresh for more picks — or click the link below for the Pro Picks page.
RELATED: Check out our Pro Picks page for more bets from our VSiN analysts
Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz
People might look at this match and think that Paul is a good play to win at least a set, as the American just beat Alcaraz in Toronto last week. But I think the Spaniard is going to really take that loss and use it as fuel for this meeting with Paul. And the fact is that Alcaraz was rusty on hard courts before stepping out there and facing Paul in Canada. Now, Alcaraz has had some time to play on this surface, and he should start nearing his US Open form soon. That’s bad news for Paul, who could struggle to replicate the shotmaking performance he put on last week.
Paul was hitting absurd shots left and right against Alcaraz last week, and he was even saying that he was playing more aggressive than usual. But when you play a match like that and don’t miss much, it usually goes the other way your next time out. So, I can see Paul racking up unforced errors in this match. Also, the last time Paul beat Alcaraz, the Spaniard responded with a straight-set win his next time out. So, I expect some adjustments from Alcaraz and his team here. And I ultimately think Alcaraz will win in straight sets, with Paul now demanding his full attention.
Bet: Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (-130 – 2 units)
Dusan Lajovic vs. Taylor Fritz
We have seen Lajovic go on huge heaters in the past, with the 33-year-old actually having won a title in which he had to go through Novak Djokovic in Serbia earlier in the year. Now, it appears Lajovic has found his form again. Lajovic went through qualifiers without having lost a set here, and he has followed it up with straight-set wins over Francisco Cerundolo and Jannik Sinner. The latter was especially surprising, with Lajovic being listed at nearly +800 to win in some spots. Now, I think Lajovic will play a competitive match against Fritz.
This is a match that really should go the American’s way, but Lajovic can keep this thing close by just staying solid. Fritz is a player that can occasionally rack up unforced errors and make mistakes on his serve, which gives his opponents openings. Some of his recent opponents haven’t been able to take advantage of those openings, but I think a veteran like Lajovic will.
I also think it’s hard to ignore the pressure Fritz will be under in this match. It’s hard to play as a heavy favorite, especially in your home country. People in the audience will be expecting him to win, but Lajovic will make him work for all of it. So, I’m taking the Serbian to win a set, and I love the odds here. I’m also putting a tiny play on Lajovic to win, as I’d hate to be on the right side and miss out.
Bet: Lajovic +1.5 Sets (+130 – 2 units) + Lajovic ML (+340 – 0.5 units)
ADDED PLAYS:
Sloane Stephens +1.5 Sets (+110) vs. Marketa Vondrousova
Alexander Zverev +1.5 Sets (-145 – 2 units) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Alexander Zverev ML (+180) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Daria Kasatkina +1.5 Sets (-160 – 1.5 units) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Daria Kasatkina ML (+150 – 0.5 units) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Gael Monfils +1.5 Sets (+180 – 0.5 units) vs. Novak Djokovic
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