Tennis best bets for ATP Shanghai – Wednesday, October 11


Tennis best bets for ATP Shanghai – Wednesday, October 11

There isn’t much time left in the 2023 tennis season, but the Asian swing brings us some really big tournaments. This week, the men are in action for a 1000-level event, which is the biggest a tournament can be outside of the four Grand Slams. I’ll be focusing on Shanghai with my tennis best bets for the week. So, keep reading for my plays for Wednesday, October 11 (with some starting on Tuesday, October 10 in the United States). 


MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have

Diego Schwartzman vs. Nicolas Jarry

There’s going to be a huge mismatch in the power department when these two take the court, but I still think there’s a good shot Schwartzman wins at least a set in this match. The Argentinean has already gone toe to toe with some big, powerful players this week, earning wins over Jiri Lehecka and Taylor Fritz in his last two matches. The win over Fritz was especially impressive, and it felt like a statement that Schwartzman is back to playing at a top-50 level, at least. Now, Schwartzman is going to try and beat Jarry, who he is actually 4-1 against in his career. And the only loss came in March, when Schwartzman was playing some of the worst tennis of his career. That was also a match in which Schwartzman won a set and then lost the match in a third-set tiebreaker. With that said, I think it’s a very safe bet to back Schwartzman to take one set. And I also think it’s worth sprinkling the moneyline, as Schwartzman has looked completely back over the last week.

Bet: Schwartzman +1.5 Sets (-158 – 2 units) & Schwartzman ML (+200 – 0.5 units)

Tommy Paul vs. Andrey Rublev

Rublev whooped Adrian Mannarino last match, which was tough considering I backed the Frenchman there. But Rublev played one of the best matches of his career in that one, and he even acknowledged his outrageous level when he greeted Mannarino at the net. Now, I like the Russian to stay hot with a win over Paul, and I think he’ll cover the small game spread in the process. Paul just hasn’t been playing his best tennis lately, as he was on a five-match losing streak before getting to Shanghai. Now, he faces a player that he is 1-4 against in his career, and I just genuinely believe this is a tough matchup for him. Rublev is far too strong from the baseline, and he’s a good serve returner. That can be tough on Paul, who can be loose with the ball on his racquet. 

Bet: Rublev -2.5 Games (-120 – 2 units) 

Added Plays

JJ Wolf ML (+115) vs. Ugo Humbert

2023 Overall Record: 293-269 (+44.21 units) 

Tennis Links 

VSiN Tennis Betting Splits

Tennis Odds

Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast