Miami open preview and tennis best bets for Wednesday, March 20
The second half of the “Sunshine Double” is the Miami Open, which takes place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida over the next two weeks. This tournament, much like the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, is one of the biggest non-majors of the year. So, even though Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal aren’t in the Miami Open field, this is still a loaded event for both the men and the women. With that in mind, we’ll have you covered with tennis best bets throughout. We also have some futures for the tournament below, which could end up being a fun way to get some action on this event. We had Jannik Sinner to win the Australian Open in January, and we also played Carlos Alcaraz to win Indian Wells. So, these have been profitable for us thus far.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2023 Results: 275-249 (+47.53 units)
2024 Results: 153-176 (+3.18 units)
Miami Open Quick Thoughts
The Miami Open plays rather slow but not nearly as slow as the BNP Paribas Open. And the ball definitely doesn’t bounce as high. So, while you still want to prioritize players that can grind out wins, it’s not quite like handicapping a clay-court event, or a hard-court tournament that plays at a snail’s pace. Players that like to hit low, flat shots can still do so. The humidity in Miami definitely hurts a little, as the ball doesn’t fly through the air as quickly. But the really powerful hitters can overcome that. But one thing to prioritize here is conditioning. When the temperatures get a little higher, players can struggle to maintain their level — or even stay on the court.
Miami Open Men’s Futures
Daniil Medvedev To Win Miami Open (+650): Medvedev wasn’t able to win last week, losing in straight sets to Alcaraz in the final. However, the Russian wasn’t even supposed to be in the Indian Wells final. He’s not a good slow-court player, with the high-bouncing courts giving his opponents a huge advantage. So, it’s impressive enough that Medvedev got to the final match in back-to-back years in the desert. And the fact that Medvedev lost to Alcaraz in Indian Wells and Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open only gives him better odds in Miami. And Medvedev happens to be the defending champion at this event, and his game is extremely dangerous here. So, I’m taking a shot on him to win it two years in a row.
The fact of the matter is that Medvedev isn’t just a good returner on slow courts, but he’s an incredible returner on all courts. Even if things are a little faster, he’ll be able to flip the court and put pressure on his opponents. And his serve will be better when it’s his turn to try and hold. But the real edge Medvedev will have in South Beach is along the baseline. Medvedev can play defense with the best of them, so he will be a wall back there. But his aggressive shots should land the mark when he goes for them. Medvedev hits powerful, flat strokes and they were sitting up in Indian Wells. They won’t do that quite as much here.
I also don’t hate Medvedev’s draw. Ugo Humbert would be a tough opponent for Medvedev, but I like the Russian to figure out a way to beat him. And Medvedev will want revenge on Sinner, if the two meet in the semis. He could have beaten him in Melbourne if he didn’t run out of steam.
Karen Khachanov To Win Quarter 2 (+700 – 0.5 units): I’m taking a flier on Khachanov to win his quarter. This section of the bracket contains Alexander Zverev, Alex de Minaur and Holger Rune, but Khachanov is capable of beating all of them when he’s playing well. And his game will make him a tough out in South Beach. Khachanov has power from all over the court, but he also moves rather well for a player his size. Khachanov is also coming off a run to the semis here last year, and he put up a good fight in a loss to Medvedev. So, even though this hasn’t been his season, you can’t rule out a good week for the 27-year-old.
Miami Open Tennis Best Bets For Wednesday, March 20th
Katy Volynets vs. Sofia Kenin
It’s interesting that the oddsmakers continue to show faith in Kenin. She is on a six-match losing streak entering the Miami Open, and the eye test doesn’t tell a different story. Kenin has a long way to go to get back to the level she was at when she won the Australian Open in 2020. She really struggles to move her feet and track balls down, and she misses the court far too often. Meanwhile, Volynets is 9-4 since the start of February and played well in Indian Wells last week. She’s just a lot more solid from the baseline, so I trust her to keep rallies alive until Kenin makes mistakes.
Bet: Volynets ML (-110 – 1.5 units)
Angelique Kerber vs. Sloane Stephens
Kerber might not pack the same punch from the baseline that she used to, but she is still capable of playing good defense and hitting her spots on the court. That makes her a tough matchup for Stephens. The American still ends way too many rallies by dumping the ball into the net or hitting shots way too long, which is a shame considering she works so hard to stay in points. But I just can’t get on board with Kerber being this big of an underdog when I trust her a bit more as a server and also think she has Stephens beat when it comes to point construction. And Kerber beat much better players than Stephens in the desert last week. So I’m not too worried about where her game is at this point in her comeback.
Bet: Kerber ML (+130)
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Arthur Fils
Fils might be a more explosive athlete than Arnaldi, but I’m not sure why he’s a favorite over the Italian. Arnaldi is such a solid player, with one of the more impressive all-around games in tennis right now. That was on full display when Arnaldi took a set off Alcaraz in their meeting in Indian Wells. And the Italian also happens to be 2-0 in two career meetings with Fils. Arnaldi beat him when the two met in Madrid last April, and he also beat him in last year’s US Open. I’m just not sure why anything would change here, especially with Fils lacking in form.
Bet: Arnaldi ML (+110 – 1.5 units)
Dan Evans vs. Lorenzo Sonego
Evans has been a bit of a disaster lately, as he has lost three matches in a row and nine of his last 11. And one of those losses happened to come against Sonego at the Australian Open. But Sonego is also struggling right now, as he has lost five of his last seven matches. And Sonego is a player that can’t afford to be missing the mark. He plays an aggressive power game, hitting very hard and with a lot of top spin. That’s obviously a very effective way to play, but it can backfire when you’re not consistently finding the court.
If you’re asking me which of these players has more in their tool kit to dig deep and get back in the win column, the answer is easily Evans. The Brit might be 0-3 in this matchup, but he’s going to utilize his slice to ask as any many questions of Sonego as possible.
Evans has also struggled more with his serve than anything else this season. But Sonego’s break percentage is a nightmarish 10.8% this season. So, this is the perfect opponent for Evans to snap out of his funk and build some confidence.
Bet: Evans ML (+120)
Tuesday’s Plays
Simona Halep ML (-115) vs. Paula Badosa
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