Tennis Best Bets: Monte Carlo Masters picks and predictions for Thursday, April 11

Zachary Cohen dives into his favorite Monte Carlo Masters tennis best bets for Thursday, April 11th.

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Jan 23, 2024; Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Novak Djokovic of Serbia celebrates his victory against Taylor Fritz of the United States in the quarter final of the men’s singles. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports

Monte Carlo Masters tennis best bets for Thursday, April 11

There’s nothing quite like the heart of clay-court season, which truly begins with the Monte Carlo Masters in France. This is a tournament that ranks just below the four Grand Slams in terms of importance. And while the field for this event is smaller, it’s absolutely loaded with talent. Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will all be out there for this event, but it’s Andrey Rublev who is the defending champion here. Those four, along with several other remarkable players, will be gunning for the first Masters 1000 title of 2024 on the dirt. And we’ll be providing you with tennis best bets on a daily basis for this one.

Make sure you keep reading for my tennis best bets for Thursday, April 11th. Also, make sure you come back throughout the day, as I constantly add picks to my card. So, if you’re interested in a match and want to see what I have on it, come back before first ball and see if I added something on it! I also will be adding some Challenger-level picks below.

 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

2024 Results: 196-222 (+0.80 units)

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic

Musetti beat Djokovic in three sets in Monte Carlo last year, and you’d have to be crazy to think the 24-time Grand Slam champion won’t remember that. Like Michael Jordan, this is another G.O.A.T that takes things personally. Djokovic, who faced some question marks before his straight-set beatdown of Roman Safiullin last round, also happens to have the perfect game to take advantage of this version of Musetti. The Italian hits absolute bombs from the baseline, but he also mixes in a ton of unforced errors. Well, Djokovic plays the type of defense required to absorb Musetti’s pace and force the Italian into mistakes.

Djokovic also looks laser-focused at the moment. The Serbian just made a coaching change, as he clearly isn’t enjoying seeing guys like Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner pass him. And his dominant win over Safiullin was his first match with Nenad Zimonjic in his box. This coaching change, along with a weird start to 2024, means that Djokovic won’t take Monte Carlo lightly. He has had trouble at this event in recent years, but he seems poised to make a deep run and potentially win it. And I expect him to take care of Musetti somewhat easily on the way.

Bet: Djokovic -1.5 Sets (-146)

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ugo Humbert

Humbert is the 15th-ranked player in the world and is in the middle of the best season of his career. The Frenchman is 17-7 and already has two titles to his name. However, Humbert is just 11-24 on clay in his career. And he’s also just 3-6 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. Meanwhile, Sonego is a tremendous clay-court player, as he’s 49-47 on the dirt in his career and 11-9 over the last 52 weeks. On top of that, Sonego beat Humbert when these two met at this tournament last year, 3-6, 7-5, 7-5. He also followed it up with a straight-set win over Humbert at the French Open.

Humbert might be a better player than Sonego, but it’s hard not to give the Italian an edge when talking about clay. So, I’m taking Sonego to force a decider. And I’m also sprinkling the moneyline here. I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t make this a match, even with this being a down season for him. Sonego is just a better mover than Humbert, and he understands the intricacies of the clay game.

Bet: Sonego +1.5 Sets (-160 – 1.5 units) & Sonego ML (+172 – 0.5 units)

Added Plays

Mikhail Kukushkin +3.5 Games (-115 – 1.5 units) vs. Rudolf Molleker [Madrid Challenger]

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ML (-138 – 1.5 units) vs. Maxime Janvier [Morelos Challenger]

Lloyd Harris ML (+102 – 2 units) vs. Soon-woo Kwon [Busan Challenger]

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