Tennis Best Bets: Mutua Madrid Open futures, plus picks and predictions for Tuesday, April 23rd

Zachary Cohen runs through his pre-tournament futures for the Mutua Madrid Open, plus his tennis best bets for Tuesday, April 23rd.

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Mar 31, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Jannik Sinner (ITA) reacts against Grigor Dmitrov (BUL) (not pictured) in the men's singles final of the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Mutua Madrid Open tournament preview, plus best bets for Tuesday, April 23rd

It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with a run of clay-court tournaments over the next couple of weeks. Over the next two weeks, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Spain, as the top players in the world compete in a 1000-level event. The Mutua Madrid Open is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action. Below you’ll find some of my favorite futures plays for this tournament, as well as my best bets for Tuesday, April 23rd.

I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.

 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

2024 Record: 226-237 (+28.89 units)

Mutua Madrid Open Conditions

The conditions for this tournament are pretty interesting. Of course, the fact that it’s a clay-court event means it’ll play relatively slow, but power players can have success here. The altitude in Madrid will ensure that the balls will fly pretty fast through the air. So, don’t overthink things with players that can really punish balls from the baseline, or just bomb serves. While the clay will make for a higher bounce, those shots are coming in faster here than they do elsewhere.

Mutua Madrid Open Thoughts

We have already seen Novak Djokovic pull out of this event, so the men’s field isn’t as loaded as usual. Also, Carlos Alcaraz is still dealing with a forearm injury, so there’s no guarantee he plays. And if he does, it wouldn’t be surprising if he is super cautious throughout the event. This is a tournament that Alcaraz has won two times in a row, so he’d probably love to go for a threepeat. But the French Open is what matters for the young Spaniard. So, he needs to make sure he’s feeling healthy by the time Rome comes around. As long as he has that week to prepare, he should be in good enough shape to compete for his first Roland Garros title.

Mutua Madrid Open Women’s Futures

Iga Swiatek To Win (+150 – 2 units): Swiatek is probably a few weeks away from reaching her unbeatable clay-court form, but I like her chances of winning in Madrid. The Pole lost to Elena Rybakina in the semifinals in Stuttgart last week, so she’ll be eager to come out and prove herself here. And Swiatek is generally trustworthy to back when in this exact position. Swiatek has also never won this tournament before, and doing so would mean a lot to her. This is also just a player that is 21-3 on clay over the last 52 weeks. And her raw clay-court Elo rating is almost 200 higher than Aryna Sabalenka, who is second on the list. Swiatek has also made strides with her serve in 2024, which is scary considering the altitude will make that more of a weapon in this tournament. And she’s already an unfair returner, so it’ll take an A+ match from her opponents to even have a shot against her.

Mutua Madrid Open Men’s Futures

Jannik Sinner To Win (+300 – 2 units): Sinner looked like he was ready to run away with a title in Monte Carlo, but a bad call went against him in the final set of his semi-final match against Stefanos Tsitsipas. From there, Sinner spiraled a bit. He lost the precision that allowed him to build a lead in the first place, and he started to cramp up. That allowed Tsitsipas to come back from a break down and ultimately win the tournament. But Sinner is still 25-2 since the start of the 2024 season, and he’s first in the world in hold percentage and fifth in break percentage. On top of that, Sinner has outrageous power from the baseline, and he also covers the court at a high level. When you mix in the fact that he has a lot more finesse in his game than he used to, you’re talking about a player with the ability to be elite on clay. And it’s just a matter of time before Sinner breaks through and wins a Masters 1000 title on the dirt. Who’s to say it won’t be here? I actually took Sinner at +450 to win the French Open two weeks ago, and that’s the only play I have on that major thus far.

Alexander Zverev To Win (13-1 – 0.5 units): Zverev is a two-time champion in Madrid, and he benefits from the altitude quite a bit. Zverev has one of the best serves in the world, so he holds pretty easily regardless of where he is. And these conditions don’t weaken that serve too much. However, the slow courts do allow Zverev to return even better than normal, and they also give him more time to set up his forehand. That side of the court is Zverev’s real weakness, but he hits it better in Madrid. So, Zverev is going to enter this tournament with a real shot at winning, and he happens to be in a favorable part of the draw. He’s on the same side of the bracket as Alcaraz, who isn’t at 100% right now. And he shouldn’t have too much of a problem with any of the opponents he’ll face before a meeting with the Spaniard. With that in mind, Zverev is worth a flier at his current price.

Casper Ruud To Win (15-1 – 0.5 units): Ruud is in the same section of the draw as Sinner, and getting by the Italian will be difficult for him. But I’d just feel dumb not having a ticket on Ruud at this point. He’s clearly a top-five player in the world on the dirt, and it’s crazy he keeps being priced like this. Ruud is a back-to-back runner-up at Roland Garros, and he won a 500-level title in Barcelona last weekend after finishing as the runner-up in Monte Carlo. He continues to turn in tremendous clay-court results, and it isn’t all that surprising. Ruud hits an insanely heavy ball, as he hits with top spin and also gets the ball deep in the court. He’s also becoming a more dangerous baseline player, as he’s taking more chances on balls up the line and showing an increased willingness to try to end points early. He’s also improving as a server, and he’s a player that rarely beats himself. That said, you can’t rule out another deep run this week. So, I want to have myself covered in case it’s Sinner vs. Ruud in the quarterfinals.

Mutua Madrid Open Tennis Best Bets for Tuesday, April 23rd

Diana Shnaider vs. Anastasia Potapova – Madrid

Potapova has more experience in Madrid than Shnaider, but that’s about all she has. Potapova comes into this event after having lost three of her last four matches, and the one win was a victory over Liudmila Samsonova in Stuttgart. Samsonova looks like she’s playing on skates when she’s on clay, so that win was hardly impressive. And Potapova wasn’t even close to competitive in losses to Marta Kostyuk, Danielle Collins and Marketa Vondrousova in the three recent losses. She’s just really lacking in form right now, while Shnaider is coming off a solid week in Stuttgart. Shnaider didn’t win any main-draw matches, but she won two qualifying matches. Then, she ended up losing a very competitive match against Paula Badosa. That was a 6-3, 6-4 defeat that was a lot closer than the score suggested, and the match lasted nearly two hours.

Shnaider will also be a tough player for Potapova to play her way into form against. The lefty can absolutely blast forehands, and she does so with a good amount of spin. That’s going to be hard for Potapova to deal with on clay, especially at altitude. Potapova also likes to play an aggressive baseline style, but that’s trouble when you’re not playing well. Potapova is likely going to rack up quite a bit of unforced errors here, and that will give Shnaider a great shot at winning. And even though I’m expecting Shnaider to be fine on her serve, she might not even need to be. I like her return game more than Potapova’s. So she can win if this turns into a break-fest.

Bet: Shnaider ML (-100 – 1.5 units)

Added Plays for Tuesday, April 23rd

Joel Schwaerzler +1.5 Sets (-147 – 2 units) vs. JJ Wolf [Savannah Challenger]

Joel Schwaerzler ML (+152 – 0.5 units) vs. JJ Wolf [Savannah Challenger]

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