It is silly season right now with the NFL Draft on Thursday and here is my crack at a mock draft. It is impossible to predict trades, but I put two in my mock draft.
I have placed a number of wagers on VSiN Primetime (weeknights at 6-9 pm ET) and they can be tracked at vsin.com/picks.
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A few notes before jumping into the mock draft:
No Penix or Nix: There is a lot of smoke around Michael Penix Jr. being a first-round selection. While it is the betting favorite to happen, I will give a hat tip to my co-host Jonathan Von Tobel and stay strong here. The Over/Under on quarterbacks has gone under six of the last seven years and I will be stubborn and say it will happen again. Bo Nix’s over/under sits at 32.5 and that has been my strongest position throughout the draft process that Nix will not be a first round selection.
Daniels goes #2: While no concrete information has been leaked out of Washington regarding the selection at pick 2, I will follow the smoke and say that LSU’s Jayden Daniels will be the selection.
Murphy first defensive player selected: Alabama’s Dallas Turner has been mocked to Atlanta for the past couple of weeks but NFL Draft insiders, including Daniel Jeremiah, Adam Schefter, and Todd McShay, have stated to watch out for Texas’ Byron Murphy to hear his name called early on Thursday night.
OL > WR: This a deep offensive line class and I expect Over 9.5 offensive lineman to be selected in the first round. As for wide receivers, after the big three of Marvin Harrison, Rome Odunze, and Malik Nabers are picked, the receivers could be waiting. I predict Georgia’s Ladd McConkey to slip into the first round while Texas’ Adonai Mitchell could fall out.
1 Chicago Bears – USC QB Caleb Williams
This is done. It is Caleb Williams. He will be a Bear.
2 Washington Commanders – LSU QB Jayden Daniels
This has been fascinating all during the NFL Draft process. Nothing is leaking from Washington, but NFL insiders continue to state that people in the league believe Daniels will be the pick over Drake Maye. I am not going to bet into the Daniels going #2 market, but I do ultimately believe that Daniels will be the selection for Washington.
3 New England Patriots – North Carolina QB Drake Maye
The Patriots said they are willing to listen to offers for the #3 pick. Peter Schrager of the NFL Network said on Monday that he believes New England will ultimately use the #3 pick on a quarterback. NFL Draft analyst Tony Pauline reported that Eliot Wolf in New England likes Michigan QB JJ McCarthy. I think there are a number of options that could happen at #3, but I’ll land on the Patriots picking Drake Maye.
4 Arizona Cardinals – Ohio St WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Cardinals could trade out, but my guess is they stick at #4 and select arguably the top player in the draft.
5 Minnesota Vikings (trade with Los Angeles Chargers) – Michigan QB JJ McCarthy
I wanted to be different and NOT have the Chargers trading out. However, the Chargers clearly want to get out of this pick and there are quarterback-hungry teams like Denver and Las Vegas that would happily trade up. Ultimately, I will put McCarthy to the Vikings here, but I am not going to bet into the McCarthy Over/Under 5.5 market.
6 New York Giants – LSU WR Malik Nabers
7 Tennessee Titans – Notre Dame OT Joe Alt
I could certainly see Tennessee trading down from #7 with a plethora of quality offensive lineman to pick from. Additionally, I could see Alt being picked by the Chargers at #5 if the Chargers do not trade out.
8 Atlanta Falcons – Texas DT Byron Murphy
There is a lot of smoke surrounding Byron Murphy rising up draft boards. The Falcons need defensive help and Alabama’s DE Dallas Turner has been mocked to Atlanta quite a bit. I think Murphy is a surprise and is worth a bet at +300 (DraftKings Sportsbook) to go in the top 10. Murphy was as high as 10-1 over the weekend to be the first defensive player selected (he is currently +450). If Murphy does not go to Atlanta at 8, I think he could be the pick at #9 for the Bears.
9 Chicago Bears – Washington WR Rome Odunze
I expect the Bears to select Odunze, Murphy, or Brock Bowers with the ninth pick.
10 New York Jets – Georgia TE Brock Bowers
The Jets need offensive line help and do not own a second round pick because of the Aaron Rodgers trade. I could see GM Joe Douglas trading down and grabbing an offensive lineman. For now, I will put Bowers at #10 because he is an elite pass catcher and Rodgers won’t be the QB in New York for much longer.
11 Los Angeles Chargers (trade with Minnesota) – Alabama OT JC Latham
12 Denver Broncos – UCLA DE Laitu Latu
Despite injury concerns, most reports say that Latu has been cleared medically by most teams. Latu has been a riser throughout the draft process and I would not be surprised if he went off the board before Alabama’s Dallas Turner.
13 Las Vegas Raiders – Alabama CB Terrion Arnold
There is a lot of smoke that the Raiders could trade up to get a quarterback or select Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. at #13. Ultimately, I think the Raiders will select Arnold or an offensive lineman at #13.
14 New Orleans Saints – Oregon St OL Taliese Fuaga
15 Indianapolis Colts – Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell
16 Seattle Seahawks – Alabama DE Dallas Turner
17 Jacksonville Jaguars – LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas’ stock has seemed to be dropping a bit due to a shoulder injury. I have seen a number of mock drafts that have the Jaguars aggressively jumping up to get one of the top three wide receivers.
18 Cincinnati Bengals – Washington OL Troy Fautanu
19 Los Angeles Rams – Florida St DE Jared Verse
20 Pittsburgh Steelers – Duke OL Graham Barton
NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah tweeted out “2 stocks I’d like to buy a little over a week away from the draft- Graham Barton & Byron Murphy” last week. I bet Under 21.5 for Barton. I think he has a number of outs, including Pittsburgh and Miami at #21.
21 Miami Dolphins – Georgia OT Armarius Mims
22 Philadelphia Eagles – Alabama DB Kool-Aid McKinstry
23 Minnesota Vikings – Penn St OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu
24 Dallas Cowboys – Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton
25 Green Bay Packers – Iowa DB Cooper DeJean
26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Penn St Edge Chop Robinson
27 Arizona Cardinals – Clemson DB Nate Wiggins
28 Buffalo Bills – Georgia WR Ladd McConkey
The first NFL Draft bet I gave out on VSiN Primetime was Ladd McConkey to be a first-round pick at +300. NFL Network’s Peter Schrager said in a video on social media that he expected McConkey to be selected in the first round. The value has been zapped, but +105 to be a first round pick at DraftKings is still a potential look.
29 Detroit Lions – Illinois DL Jer’Zhan Newton
30 Baltimore Ravens – Missouri DE Darius Robinson
31 Washington Commanders (trade with San Francisco) – Arizona OT Jordan Morgan
Washington has six picks in the top 100 and with Adam Peters coming over from San Francisco, I could see the Commanders coming back into the first round to select a tackle to protect Jayden Daniels.
32 Kansas City Chiefs – BYU OL Kingsley Suamatia
