Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Thursday, May 2nd
It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with a run of clay-court tournaments over the next couple of months. Over the next week, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Spain, as the top players in the world compete in a 1000-level event. The Mutua Madrid Open is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action. Below you’ll find some of my tennis best bets for Thursday, May 2nd.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 247-263 (+25.94 units)
Jiri Lehecka vs. Daniil Medvedev – Madrid
I was on Jiri Lehecka to beat Rafael Nadal last round and the Czech player delivered a massive performance. His serve was absolutely untouchable in that match, and he was also dominant from the baseline. Lehecka was pounding the ball and hitting his spots, giving Nadal few opportunities to really change the momentum. It was an absolutely perfect showing. And I now like Lehecka to give Daniil Medvedev some problems.
Lehecka has just been extremely trustworthy with his serve in the biggest moments of matches. So, I think he might be able to find a way to consistently hold, even against a great returner like Medvedev. However, I’m a little nervous about Medvedev holding himself. The Russian is having a really down year with the ball on his racquet, and he’s going to get himself in trouble if he doesn’t fix that. Lehecka isn’t the greatest returner in the world, but he can take advantage of weak second serves.
Lehecka also has the ability to push Medvedev around along the baseline. The 22-year-old just has a world of power from back there. And while Medvedev is a remarkable defender, I see him struggling a bit to get comfortable in this match. Medvedev doesn’t like the clay to begin with, and he hasn’t played a player with Lehecka’s ability to hit with power and depth in this tournament.
All in all, I just think Lehecka has the game to cover a 3.5-game spread. And this could serve as yet another big performance in his breakout 2024 season.
Bet: Lehecka +3.5 Games (-149 – 2 units)
Elena Rybakina vs. Aryna Sabalenka – Madrid
I thought Aryna Sabalenka was going to be in trouble against Mirra Andreeva, but we got a masterclass from the Belarusian in that match. Sabalenka can occasionally be her own worst enemy, as she can rack up unforced errors in a hurry. And she is also prone to some really ugly service games. But Sabalenka wasn’t broken once against Andreeva, who is one of the best returners in the women’s game. And she also came up with some huge aces in big spots. On top of that, Sabalenka played as clean of a baseline game as I have seen from her. And that makes it hard not to like her as a plus-money play against Elena Rybakina.
Rybakina might have won a clay-court tournament in Stuttgart, but I’m not a huge fan of the way her game translates to this surface. Sure, Rybakina has a very good serve, which gives her a chance in any match she plays. But she’ll be up against an elite returner in this match, so Sabalenka should be able to neutralize that strength a little. Also, Sabalenka’s raw power from the baseline could get to Rybakina, who doesn’t move all that well along the baseline.
There’s a reason that Sabalenka is 6-4 in the 10 meetings between these two, and I just can’t ignore that when you also factor in that this is a clay-court match. Sabalenka is a little better than Rybakina on the dirt, and that’s especially true in Madrid. The Belarusian is a two-time champion at this event. That said, I think the wrong player is favored here.
Bet: Sabalenka ML (+110 – 2 units)
Added Plays
PARLAY: Lorenzo Musetti ML vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo [Cagliari Challenger] + Tomas Martin Etcheverry ML vs. Arthur Rinderknech [Aix en Provence Challenger] (-125 – 1.5 units)
Frances Tiafoe ML (-160 – 1.5 units) vs. Federico Coria [Cagliari Challenger]
PARLAY: Maxime Cressy ML vs. Yuta Shimizu + Adam Walton ML vs. Beibit Zhukayev (-111 – 2 units) [Guangzhou Challenger]
