It might feel like the US Open marks the end of tennis season, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. We have a 1000-level event taking place on the ATP Tour right now, as the men are currently at La Defense Arena in Nanterre, France for the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, keep reading for some tennis best bets, focusing on the action on Tuesday, October 28.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Denis Shapovalov vs. Joao Fonseca
Last week, Shapovalov retired from his match against Fonseca in the Basel quarterfinals, but the Canadian won a set in that one. And overall, it was pretty evenly played for a majority of the battle. That’s why it’s hard to accept Shapovalov being available at +163 odds. Until the third set, there was very little between these two players, and Shapovalov’s big, powerful game clearly gave the young Brazilian trouble.
Playing indoors also happens to take away some of the elements that trouble Shapovalov, who can occasionally rack up double faults when he’s forced to play in tougher outdoor conditions. On top of that, I also like fading players that are coming off big titles, as it’s hard to come out the following week and do it all again. Well, that was the biggest title of Fonseca’s career, and it would be understandable if he comes out and turns in a dud here.
Bet: Shapovalov ML (+163 – 0.5 units)
Jaume Munar vs. Daniil Medvedev
I added plays on Munar +1.5 Sets and Munar ML to the VSiN Pro Picks page on Saturday. The odds have since shifted in a pretty big way, so you likely won’t do as well as I did with these odds. However, I’d still suggest playing Munar to win a set, plus the moneyline is still worth a sprinkle at +210.
Medvedev has been a different player since the US Open, showing that moving on from Gilles Cervara in favor of Thomas Johansson and Rohan Goetzke might be working. Since the start of September, the Russian is 13-4 and won a title in Almaty. Medvdev’s first serve has looked a little better over the last couple of weeks, and he just looks a little better as a problem solver out there. The latter is big for the 29-year-old, as Medvedev was one of the game’s best on-court thinkers when he was at his very best. The issue is that Medvedev is going up against a player that has been similarly hot.
Munar made a run to the Round of 16 in Shanghai, where he actually took a set off Novak Djokovic in a competitive three-set battle. Then, Munar beat Ben Shelton and Felix Auger-Aliassime in Basel before bowing out in a very close match against eventual champion Joao Fonseca — with the Brazilian winning 7-6 (4), 7-5.
Munar has just gotten a lot better on hard courts, where his serve and baseline strokes have become much bigger weapons. He also has the rally tolerance to hang with Medvedev in longer exchanges, plus the confidence required to go out there and play his game against one of the sport’s top competitors. The Spaniard actually beat Medvedev 6-2, 6-3 in a lopsided match in Miami earlier this year, and those were conditions that should have favored Medvedev.
It isn’t necessarily hard to imagine Medvedev winning this match, but it is difficult to envision him doing it in straightforward fashion. And Munar has a better shot at winning than the odds suggest.
Bet: Munar +1.5 Sets (-115 – 1.5 units) & Munar ML (+275 – 0.5 units)
Learner Tien vs. Andrey Rublev
Rublev played very well in an opening-round win over Jacob Fearnley, winning in straights sets with very few tense moments. However, Tien is a terrible matchup for the Russian. We saw the American beat Rublev in Washington earlier in the year, winning 7-5, 6-2 in the Round of 32. He also played him very close in Cincinnati, losing 7-6 (4), 6-3.
Tien just plays such a steady game from the baseline and allows Rublev to get in his own head and beat himself. That’s what we’re banking on with plus-money odds, and there’s a decent shot it happens. These conditions will also make Tien’s all-around game a little more dangerous, giving him a little extra point-finishing ability.
Bet: Tien ML (+112)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
