It might feel like the US Open marks the end of tennis season, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. We have a 1000-level event taking place on the ATP Tour right now, as the men are currently at La Defense Arena in Nanterre, France for the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, keep reading for some tennis best bets, focusing on the action on Wednesday, October 29.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Daniil Medvedev
I took a beating going against Medvedev in his match against Jaume Munar, but it still feels like grabbing a set — and some +219 — with Dimitrov is the right play here. Dimitrov was impressive in his first match back from the pectoral injury that cost him a win over eventual champion Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon. The Bulgarian earned a 7-6 (5), 6-1 win over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, handling the big-serving Frenchman in his home 1000.
While it’s hard to find positives in injuries, Dimitrov did go four months without taxing his legs. Meanwhile, everybody else was grinding out the tough ATP schedule. That includes Medvedev, who has played a lot of matches over the last few weeks.
Dimitrov is also the superior server in this matchup, which should be pretty big indoors. That helped him beat Medvedev at this very tournament in 2023. Dimitrov also took a set off Medvedev in Vienna that same year, meaning he has won at least one set against the Russian in each of their last two indoor hard-court matches.
As long as Dimitrov isn’t dealing with any pain, it’s just hard to see this being anything but a competitive match. Dimitrov should control a lot of the rallies with his backhand slice, and there’s a chance his forehand will be the biggest weapon on the court.
Bet: Dimitrov +1.5 Sets (-129 – 1.5 units) & Dimitrov ML (+219 – 0.5 units)
Corentin Moutet vs. Alexander Bublik
Bublik has been one of the best players on the ATP Tour for months, but it’s hard not to like Moutet as a big underdog in front of a French crowd. This is a player that can really level up in the right environment, and I don’t see any reason he can’t make this a match.
Moutet actually has a 12-5 record since the US Open, and he even has a win over Medvedev in that span. Moutet also played Medvedev close in a three-set loss in the Almaty final, and he gave Alexander Zverev a run for his money in Beijing a month ago.
If Moutet can just put his head down and get some easy holds, he’ll eventually find ways to frustrate Bublik from the baseline. Also, while Bublik has made strides with his mental approach to the game, it will be interesting to see how he looks with a full crowd against him. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him having a bit of a breakdown.
Bet: Moutet ML (+150)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
