The ATP and WTA Tours are fully into the North American hard-court swing, and this week brings our first true benchmark events with the 1000-level stops in Montreal and Toronto. With the US Open now on the horizon, this stretch is where contenders start to separate, dialing in their timing, adjusting to quicker conditions, and building real momentum against elite fields.
These tournaments carry significant weight on both tours, giving us a strong read on form, fitness, and potential title paths heading into New York. There’s no shortage of high-level matches to break down, so we’ll have plenty to work with as the week unfolds. I’ll be posting my tennis best bets Monday through Friday, then rolling out my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for the weekend finals.
With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for the National Bank Open on Friday, August 7.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi
Maya Joint vs. Liudmila Samsonova
I really want a piece of Samsonova to win her match against Joint, but the moneyline is a little too rich for my blood. However, I do like the Russian to win this one, as we have reached her favorite portion of the season. Her power is suddenly overwhelming her opponents, she’s looking sharp as a server and ball-striker, and she’s moving better. I don’t think Joint will be able to handle all of it.
In order to get the price I’m looking for, I’m taking Griekspoor to win a set against Arnaldi. This is a match I think the Dutchman will win outright, as I believe the difference in serve will be too hard for Arnaldi to overcome — especially with the Italian lacking in form. But I’m just asking him to get me to a decider.
PARLAY: Griekspoor Alt +1.5 Sets & Samsonova ML (-127 – 1.5 units)
Joao Fonseca vs. Casper Ruud
This is a very interesting match. Fonseca clearly has all-world talent, which is why I have called him a future Grand Slam winner. However, even with Fonseca having defeated Ruud at Roland Garros, I’m not sure I’m comfortable with the Brazilian being a favorite in this matchup. Ruud, who is still in the prime of his career, has been as high as No. 2 in the world. He’s also a three-time Grand Slam runner-up.
Fonseca has also struggled to pick up wins against the top players in the sport. He’s just 8-11 in the 19 matches he has played against players inside the Top 20, with one of those wins being the one he picked up over Ruud in Paris. And honestly, that was a match in which there was a bit of controversy, as Ruud lost the second set on a blown call.
I just view this as a 50-50 match, so I’m willing to grab Ruud and take my chances. I also think this is a matchup that the Norwegian should like. Sure, he lost that match in Paris, but Ruud has a higher Performance Rating over the last 52 weeks (8.06 vs. 7.79 at TennisViz), he’s a better returner, and his backhand is much stronger. Ruud should also be able to hang with Fonseca on forehand-to-forehand exchanges.
Bet: Ruud ML (+121)
Alexei Popyrin vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante
Agustin Tirante is coming off a massive straight-set win over Taylor Fritz, but that was one in which the American was clearly in pain. Agustin Tirante is still below .500 in ATP-level hard-court matches, and upgrading the way you view him as a hard-court player based on two matches is extremely risky. With that in mind, it’s hard not to see Popyrin as a tremendous value as a -125 favorite on Friday.
Popyrin has actually won the National Bank Open before, so he enjoys playing on the North American hard-court swing. Of course, the Australian isn’t anywhere near that level right now, but he still possesses far more weapons than Agustin Tirante.
Popyrin’s serve should get him pretty far in this match, allowing him to breeze through service games and then try to apply pressure as a returner. That means we only need a few moments of brilliance, which isn’t outrageous considering how aggressive Popyrin is from the back of the court.
Bet: Popyrin ML (-125 – 2 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
