Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Friday, August 7 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Three B’s (4th race)
Fourth Race
1. Three B’s
2. Party in the Army
3. Elysian Meadows
THREE B’S was impressive clearing his first-level allowance condition in January; has achieved mixed results since then, though with viable excuses for the seemingly poor efforts – wide against a strong rail in the February start, didn’t seem to handle the sloppy track going this distance in April; turf to dirt and gets Irad. PARTY IN THE ARMY ran well twice in stakes races as a 2yo, particularly the Breeders’ Futurity, where he blew the start in a short field; he cleaned up the gate issues as time went on, and won his two starts before the layoff easily, the second of those with an 81 Beyer in January; improved again in a fast running of the Mike Lee last time on this track; 3yo is facing some tough older rivals, but he is getting good, and dropping back a furlong might be a positive. ELYSIAN MEADOWS is a confirmed closer, but he is turning back for this in a race that is not short on pace; needs a clean run into it.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other ten races on Friday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Here’syourtrouble
2. Furry Fox
3. Mobelladream
HERE’SYOURTROUBLE looked good winning her second start off the claim for Rudy when out to a mile; she’s made two starts so far this year, one on turf, and the other a two-turn race at Monmouth; turns back and drops for the third start off the layoff. FURRY FOX didn’t hold her form for her prior connections, though her early speed remained intact; was up in class off the claim last time when dueling and tiring in a race rained off the grass. MOBELLADREAM is dropping out of a stakes try when stretched out at Finger Lakes; closed late ground in two sprints prior to that, and there is some pace in this race; turns back while dropping down in class.
Second Race
1. Lake Ariel
2. Raynham Hall
3. Ticket to Ride
LAKE ARIEL received a good education on debut here last summer while forced to chase and spending some time racing in and among horses; was entered for turf in the 3yo debut, where she ran well behind a pair of talented fillies, both of whom were entered MTO in that spot; stayed on dirt for the second start back but had no chance with that blowout winner, thenc was rained off the grass again last time, where she dueled a fast pace and paid the price; one more chance. RAYNHAM HALL finished second twice in MSW company sprinting on the grass as a 2yo, before trying to stretch out to no avail; has dropped in class this year without success, though he has been in some tougher races for the level recently. TICKET TO RIDE ran well through trouble in her turf debut here last summer, then failed to run as well in her next two starts on grass; was on a turnback last time and couldn’t get near the lead; running out of chances but fits well here if she can find her good race.
Third Race
1. Coach Ryan
2. Emotionlyavailble
3. Ohonte’s Own
COACH RYAN got in an educational debut here as 2yo, before bumping into subsequent stakes winner Jaxer in his second start; was rated back and followed the eventual winner around the track before trying to gun him down in the stretch, and just failing to do so, off the layoff; second back with forward to go. EMOTIONLYAVAILBLE and OHONTE’S OWN have their last two starts in common, and both of those races were won by wire-to-wire winners. EMOTIONLYAVAILBLE finished gamely up the rail to get second with a 72 Beyer with new blinkers last time; switches to Prat. OHONTE’S OWN improved in his second career start when earning a field-best 73 Beyer; finished behind EMOTIONLYAVAILBLE last time when forced to carry more ground; tries again.
Fifth Race
1. Ez Roll
2. Papa Yo
3. Leftembehind
EZ ROLL has won three of his last five, including a 90 Beyer effort when keeping closer to the early pace going this distance two back; got wired by razor-sharp speed Georgia Magic last time. PAPA YO dropped consecutively to go back-to-back at Oaklawn earlier in the year; was up in class last time; tactically inclined 5yo gets to break from a nice inside post as he ships in and switches to Rice. LEFTEMBEHIND just missed in his last two starts going this distance; tried turf in his next start, then ran broke slowly when dropped back in distance last time; stretches back out.
Sixth Race
1. Ed Charles
2. Rufus the Red
3. Silverus
ED CHARLES broke a bit slowly and was outpaced while looking green, then came wide off the turn to put in a good finish in a useful debut effort; dangerous if building on that effort as he gets a bit more ground to work with. RUFUS THE RED is by a 15% juvenile debut sire, and the dam (three career wins) is a sister to Grade 1 winner Defunded; has a full-sister who was a debut winner sprinting on dirt. SILVERUS appears to be training well up to this for Weaver, who has been much better with his 2yos debuting on turf recently; the dam was a very good horse, but she wanted to go long.
Seventh Race
1. Remi’s Moon
2. Bridle a Butterfly
3. New York Scrappy
REMI’S MOON ran very well with a tough trip when switched to turf two back off the claim; tried stretching out last time to no avail; rates one more chance turning back. BRIDLE A BUTTERFLY was a stakes winner sprinting on grass last summer; going longer earlier this year didn’t pan out; was finishing gamely into a race that wasn’t coming back for him last time; needs a setup as he adds blinkers off the claim. NEW YORK SCRAPPY has been racing in excellent form on both surfaces all year; pulled a very good trip, but she handled turf without issue two back; Prat sticks as he switches back to turf again off a third straight win.
Eighth Race
1. Shangrala Road
2. Mirage
3. Sociably Johnny
SHANGRALA ROAD has tried turf recently without success, though he didn’t run poorly two back sprinting; prefer him as a dirt horse, and he is fast enough early to get position from the chute, which is imperative in these races; drops for Rice, who is 23% with a $2.23 ROI making this surface switch over the past five years. MIRAGE somehow wound up last early, then rallied gamely late going this distance two back; dropped down in price last time when only second best going longer; right back at the same level off the claim as he cuts back again. SOCIABLY JOHNNY does have the look of a closing sprinter, but he might be able to keep closer to the pace as he stretches out for this, and he did post his lone career win when able to get involved early; stretches out for the first time on dirt.
Ninth Race
1. Third Coast
2. Print
3. Bottas
Regally-bred THIRD COAST has looked good progressing as a 3yo. He had a bit of a trip behind one of today’s rivals at Keeneland in April, before bouncing back with a dominant stakes win going this distance in his next start; got caught over behind horses all through the stretch when stepped up to try a Grade 1 last time; adds blinkers to try again, and he will be a price. PRINT is also going to be a big price in here after finishing behind three of these same rivals in last month’s Saranac; he did not have a clean trip in that race, and he has also been improving through racing as a 3yo; needs his best. Not hard to make excuses for BOTTAS, who has lost three in a row since taking a Grade 2 as a 2yo, and he has pulled less-than-clean trips in all three starts since; draws wide, but he fits well here.
Tenth Race
1. Faithful Departed
2. Consensus View
3. Fitz Right
FAITHFUL DEPARTED has run one good race after another since switching to the grass, including a powerful Grade 3 win when stretched out to nine furlongs two back in Kentucky; acquitted herself well last time when once again finishing well for second behind a dominant, front-running winner. CONSENSUS VIEW gives away a lot in the way of experience with only a debut maiden win under her belt to this point, though she looked good taking that race over this distance, and she goes for top connections; might be this good. FITZ RIGHT has gotten good for Brown as a 3yo, and her handy speed gives Prat options from this inside draw, though she was no real match for FAITHFUL DEPARTED in the late stages last time; tries a bit more distance.
Eleventh Race
1. Heavenly Light
2. Despo’s Dream
3. Coquito
HEAVENLY LIGHT won two in a row on the main track before trying turf recently; drops and switches back to dirt after being freshened up for a trainer having a good meet here. DESPO’S DREAM has traded decisions with a couple of these same rivals recently, and she just comes right back at the same level to make her second start off the claim for Rudy; logical getting a rider upgrade for this. COQUITO is one of the mares that has recent races in common with DESPO’S DREAM, including a determined victory over that rival two back going this distance; cuts back to seven again after trying a mile off the claim last time.
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