The ATP and WTA Tours are currently in full swing. We’re just a week away from the start of the 2026 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, which is considered the “fifth Slam.” However, there’s still some high-leverage tennis to be played before that, as the men are playing 500-level events in Dubai and Acapulco — while others are playing in Santiago (250). Meanwhile, the women are in either Merida (500) or Austin (250). With that in mind, we have a lot to cover over the next couple of days. I’ll be writing up my tennis best bets from Monday to Friday, then I’ll post my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for Sunday. That said, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Friday, February 27.
Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Felix Auger Aliassime – Dubai
Since the start of 2026, we have seen a better version of Medvedev than we have seen in quite some time. The Russian is 12-4 in the new year, and his hold percentage is up from 82.9% in 2025 to 83.3% in 2026. That serve keeps trending back up after a miserable 2024 season. Medvedev is also breaking at a 35.4% clip, plus his advanced stats at TennisViz are rather favorable. Well, when looking at those, I’m particularly interested in Shot Quality on the return and the backhand wing.
The courts in Dubai are very quick, so holds are coming easy to everyone. However, Medvedev’s Return Quality is 7.7 and Auger-Aliassime’s is 7.2. That edge when looking to break could make the difference here. I’ll also have my eyes open for the backhand-to-backhand exchanges. Medvedev has one of the best two-handers on the planet, and his Backhand Quality is up at 8.0. Meanwhile, Auger-Aliassime’s is down at 6.7. I just wouldn’t be surprised if Medvedev breaks down Auger-Aliassime’s two-hander, as he has done in previous meetings between these two.
Medvedev is 7-2 against Auger-Aliassime in his career, and he’s also 7-0 in the matches that they have completed on hard courts. Last year, Auger-Aliassime did have a 6-3 lead over the Russian in Doha, but Medvedev wasn’t able to finish that match. So, perhaps that’ll give the Canadian some confidence. But still, this is a pretty lopsided series, and there are reasons for it. Medvedev can get pressure on the Auger-Aliassime serve and attack the Canadian’s biggest weakness from the back of the court. I don’t see any reason that can’t continue.
Bet: Medvedev ML (-125 – 1.5 units)
NOTE: Due to how late the Acapulco matches start, it has been difficult to get them included in these articles. However, I am handicapping that event on the Pro Picks page. Check the day of matches — and a few hours before matches — to see if I have anything there.
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
