Tennis Best Bets: Picks and predictions for Indian Wells – Thursday, March 7

Zachary Cohen runs through his tennis best bets for the Indian Wells action on Thursday, March 7th.

Jan 18, 2023; Melbourne, VICTORIA, Australia; Rafael Nadal after his second round match against Mackenzie Mcdonald on day three of the 2023 Australian Open tennis tournament at Melbourne Park. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports

Indian Wells best bets for Thursday, March 7th

It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. Over the next two weeks, the ATP and WTA Tours stop at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players are in the fields this week, making this a tournament you won’t want to miss. With that in mind, keep reading for my best bets for Thursday, March 7th. Also, I’d strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I’ll occasionally add picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.

Rafael Nadal announced on X on Wednesday night that he has withdrawn from the BNP Paribas Open because he didn’t feel like he was ready to play at a top level.


MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

2024 Record: 115-124 (+4.43 units)

Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Aleksandar Vukic

In my Indian Wells tournament preview, I noted that it’s hard to win here as a one-dimensional player. Well, that kind of describes Vukic. The 27-year-old’s best path to victory is behind his first serve. But that might not be as effective as usual on this surface. Also, if he isn’t making his first serves at a high clip, he’ll be in serious trouble. And the reality is that Vukic’s form is miserable right now. He has lost six of the seven matches he has played in 2024, and he’s also just 3-12 dating back to the US Open. That makes him a player to fade against Mochizuki, who won both of his qualifying matches in straight sets and is the significantly better baseliner between these two.

Bet: Mochizuki ML (-105 – 2 units)

Hugo Grenier vs. Alexandre Muller

Greniere beat two solid players in qualifying, earning straight-set wins over Alex Molcan and Hamad Medjedovic. That’s something that you like to see here, as this event can be really hard to settle into. Well, Grenier is already playing good tennis in these conditions, and he now gets a pretty favorable matchup. Grenier has actually won three matches in a row against Muller, with one of them coming at the Australian Open. The Frenchman has his opponent’s number, and I think he’ll keep it up with a victory in the desert. Muller comes into this one on the heels of back-to-back losses, and one of them was against an out-of-form Andy Murray.

Bet: Grenier ML (+100 – 1.5 units)

Viktoriya Tomova vs. Sofia Kenin

I’m not thrilled about the idea of backing Tomova, but this is strictly a fade of Kenin. The American has lost six of the seven matches she has played this year. And Kenin is somebody that can really let bad results linger. The American hasn’t come close to reaching the level that helped her win the Australian Open in 2020. And overall, I think she’s in for some more losses before things get better. Kenin just doesn’t move all that well, and she bleeds unforced errors because of that. So, Tomova can find a way to the next round by just making a lot of balls. 

Bet: Tomova ML (+134 – 2 units)

Added Plays

Dan Evans ML (+132 – 1.5 units) vs. Roman Safiullin

Nuno Borges ML (+116 – 1.5 units) vs. Athur Fils

Elina Avanesyan ML (-120 – 2 units) vs. Oceane Dodin

Nicolas Moreno De Alboran ML (+140 – 2 units) vs. Lukas Klein

Elisabetta Cocciaretto ML (-144 – 1.5 units) vs. Peyton Stearns

Denis Shapovalov ML (-138 – 2 units) vs. Botic van de Zandschulp

VSiN Tennis Betting Splits

Tennis Odds

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