NBA: Best bets and analysis for Wednesday, March 6th

Jonathan Von Tobel (95-82-2 | Units: +7.1) gives his daily NBA best bets and analysis for Wednesday, March 6th.

Jan 20, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Dejounte Murray (5) dribbles defended by Cleveland Cavaliers guard Craig Porter (9) during the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.

NBA Betting Splits | NBA Odds | NBA Injury Reports


NBA Best Bets

Record: 95-82-2 | Units: +7.1 | ROI: 3.7%

*Orlando Magic (-6.5, 226.5) at Washington Wizards

Orlando comes into this game on no rest, but it is in impeccable form. The Magic are now 13-4 SU and ATS in their last 17 games after defeating the Hornets last night. They are heavy favorites to improve this run tonight against the lowly Wizards. Washington is 0-15 SU/6-9 ATS in its last 15 contests and showing no improvement.

The situation for Orlando is a negative one tonight. It is playing its third game in four nights on the second leg of a road back-to-back. For what it’s worth, it is also the team’s sixth game in 10 days. Still, the market has moved slightly in the Magic’s direction, and it’s hard to argue against it.

The Wizards are an abysmal defensive team, and where they struggle is exactly where the Magic want to score. Washington allows opponents to take 35.0% of their attempts at the rim, and they give up 71.8% on those shots. Orlando takes the most shot attempts at the rim (38.9%) and ranks 10th in rim shooting (67.7%). The Magic also generate a large amount of second chance points with its offensive rebounding. The Wizards allow opponents to rebound 30.5% of their missed attempts and are among the worst teams in Cleaning The Glass’ putback points per 100 missed shots metric (121.5).

Still, the spot is negative, and Orlando could be without some rotation pieces in Gary Harris and Jonathan Isaac who are both questionable to play. Laying the points in this situation might not be the best strategy, as the defense for the Magic could be lacking. So, I’ll bank on Orlando being able to exploit the defensive mismatches they have in front of them.

Best Bet: Magic TT OV 115.5 (-115) – Playable to 116.5 (-115)

*Cleveland Cavaliers (-1, 217) at *Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta burned me in two games against Brooklyn, but since Trae Young’s injury the team is 3-2 SU and ATS. There is a strong argument to be made that those two losses were the ugly side of variance, and the Hawks did bounce back in a win over the Knicks last night. Tonight, Atlanta gets an opportunity to build on that win with Cleveland.

Both teams are coming into this game with no rest, but the Cavaliers’ situation is the worse of the two. Cleveland is not only coming off an insane win over Boston, but it also lost Evan Mobley in the process. We do not have official word on Mobley, but considering he could not return it would make sense that he misses this game tonight. With Donovan Mitchell already sidelined and Max Strus questionable at best, this could be another short-handed night for the Cavaliers. The team is also playing its fourth game in six nights.

The Hawks have obviously been a very poor team. They are 20-41 ATS on the season, and 15-16 SU/10-21 ATS at home. However, this situation and the injuries for the Cavaliers are too negative to ignore. Let’s hope Atlanta finally gets one for us at home.

Best Bet: Hawks (-2.5) – Playable at (-2.5) or better

Chicago Bulls (-2, 225.5) at Utah Jazz

Utah has covered its last two games, but it is still 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS since the trade deadline deals that sent off Simone Fontecchio, Kelly Olynyk and Ochai Agbaji. Now, the injuries are starting to pile up. Taylor Hendricks, Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler are all out, and Keyonte George is questionable to play. 

The frontcourt injuries are the most concerning. Chicago is a solid rebounding team that grabs 27.7% of its missed attempts on offense. It also faces a Utah team which has allowed the second-most points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time (121.8) since shipping off its three rotation pieces. The Bulls are generally healthy as well, and with Alex Caruso on the floor they have a piece to hound Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton or George, should he play.

Best Bet: Bulls (-3.5) – Playable at (-3.5) or better

NBA Best Bets

Magic TT OV 115.5 (-115)

Hawks (-2.5)

Bulls (-3.5)

Remaining Games

Memphis Grizzlies at *Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5, 209.5)

This one is all about the injury report. Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable for Memphis. Tyrese Maxey is questionable at best after being a scratch last night due to a concussion. Injury designations aside, the market has had an odd infatuation with Philadelphia since it lost Joel Embiid. It is 6-9 SU/5-10 ATS since the injury, and the market has moved on them regularly. One could make the argument there has finally been an adjustment, as the 76ers were laying 12 points to the Hornets just four days ago. 

Los Angeles Clippers (-7, 225) at Houston Rockets

Los Angeles is in poor form right now, and it is hard to trust it at this point. The Clippers come into this contest on a 5-6 SU/3-8 ATS slide over their last 11 games. The biggest issue for Los Angeles has been an offense which has managed just 111.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over this span. Houston has allowed that identical mark defensively over the same time span. The play here for me was under, but the market priced me out by pushing this down to 223 consensus. Los Angeles is 8-3 to the under during this slide due to the poor offense, and Houston is 11-4 to the under in its last 15 games.

Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors (-2.5, 229)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable to play with his Achilles injury, and until his status is known it is nearly impossible to recommend a wager here. Milwaukee is 6-0 SU/5-0-1 ATS since the All-Star break and is coming off a shocking comeback win over Los Angeles. However, Golden State is 14-7 SU/15-6 ATS since Draymond Green returned from suspension. Interesting note here: These are the two hottest under teams in the league. The Bucks are 14-1-1 to the under in their last 16 contests and the Warriors are on a 14-3 run in their last 17 games.