The ATP and WTA Tours are back on hard courts, and the action is about to ramp up as the road to the 2026 US Open gets underway. With the summer swing now in full flow, this stretch is all about players sharpening their timing, adjusting to the conditions, and building momentum before New York. There’s a busy slate this week, giving us plenty to dig into across both tours as the hard-court season starts to take shape. I’ll be posting my tennis best bets Monday through Friday, then I’ll roll out my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for the weekend finals. With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for the Mubadala DC Open for Monday, July 27.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Alejandro Tabilo
Griekspoor has had a miserable 2026 season, as he’s just 9-16 on the year and hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Meanwhile, Tabilo has had a strong season, going 21-18 and reestablishing himself as a tough out on all surfaces. However, while Tablio is 16-8 on all of TennisViz’s tracked outdoor hard-court matches over the last 52 weeks, his Performance Rating in that span is 7.48. That’s actually lower than Griekspoor’s 7.53 Performance Rating over the same 52-week stretch, even with the Dutchman being 13-18 in such matches. That just shows you that even Tabilo’s better tennis is right on par with Griekspoor’s weaker tennis, and we should honestly start to see some better stuff from the Dutchman soon. The conditions in DC favor players with big serves, and Griekspoor easily has the advantage as a server in this matchup. The humidity could also help Griekspoor a bit on Monday, as anything the weather does to slow things down will give him a better chance as a returner and baseliner.
Bet: Griekspoor ML (-128)
Sofia Kenin vs. Emma Navarro
Liudmila Samsonova vs. Madison Keys
I’m well aware of how square a two-leg moneyline parlay with favorites can be, but I like Navarro and Keys to handle their matches on Monday. Navarro has been playing much better tennis over the last couple of months, looking better and better from the back of the court. Her ability to put a ton of balls in play should frustrate the hell out of Kenin, who can be extremely erratic with her ball-striking. Then, in the Keys match, I trust the American’s ability to return way more. Both players can go big on the serve and pound the ball from the baseline, but Keys is just much better as a returner. She has also been tremendous all year, as she’s 25-10 since the start of 2026. Samsonova is just 10-18.
PARLAY: Navarro ML & Keys ML (-130 – 1.5 units)
Washington Futures
Ben Shelton To Win Mubadala DC Open (+600)
Jakub Mensik To Win Mubadala DC Open (13-1 – 0.5 units)
Frances Tiafoe To Win Mubadala DC Open (14-1 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
