MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, July 27.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
4:10 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Zac Thornton has been solid in a small sample, posting a 1.93 ERA across four starts, but he is pitching to a lot of contact with only 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Braves lineup that ranks fourth in road scoring with just under five runs per game. Braves starting pitcher Martin Perez owns a 3.38 ERA but a much higher 4.44 fielding independent with 6.9 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings. While the Mets offense will be hurt by Juan Soto’s injury, it has been much better at home, ranking 18th in home scoring with 4.3 runs per game compared to last in the National League in road scoring with fewer than 3.8 runs per game.
Pick: Braves vs. Mets Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
6:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly has had a rough season, posting a 5.12 ERA and a 5.86 fielding independent with 1.9 home runs and 3.6 walks allowed per nine innings. The Pirates lead the league in home scoring with nearly 5.6 runs per game. Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller owns a 4.90 ERA but a lower 4.38 fielding independent with 1.1 home runs and 3.1 walks allowed per nine innings. The Diamondbacks rank 18th in road scoring with 4.3 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -125 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -164 and Total 9.3
6:45 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals
Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer is making his first start since June 10 and has recorded only 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 4.5 walks and 3.7 home runs per nine innings this season. Nationals starting pitcher Andrew Alvarez has pitched even better than his 4.22 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.05 fielding independent with 9.3 strikeouts and only 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. The Blue Jays rank last in the league in scoring with fewer than four runs per game, while the Nationals lead the league at 5.5 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -182
7:40 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starting pitcher Noah Schultz has struggled this season, posting a 6.04 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 4.6 walks allowed per nine innings. However, he faces a Yankees lineup that entered Sunday Night Baseball averaging just 3.3 runs per game over its past 29 contests. Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried is making his second start since May 11 but looked sharp in his first appearance off the injured list, allowing one hit and no walks across five shutout innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He is backed by a bullpen that entered with the league’s best ERA at 3.02, a number that drops to 2.35 since June 1. The White Sox rank sixth in bullpen ERA during that span at 3.28.
Pick: Yankees vs. White Sox Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
7:45 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cubs starting pitcher David Peterson owns a brutal 5.97 ERA, but his 4.15 fielding independent with only 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings points toward significant positive regression. The Cardinals have some of the largest offensive home-and-road splits in baseball, ranking third in road scoring with more than 5.2 runs per game but 28th at home with 3.8 runs per game. St. Louis had not announced a starting pitcher, but Matthew Liberatore figures to factor into the game. He owns a 5.18 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.5 walks allowed per nine innings but has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in three of his past four starts.
Pick: Cubs vs. Cardinals Under 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.9
9:40 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics
It has been a rough season for Athletics starting pitcher Jack Perkins, who owns a 6.75 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks last in ERA at 5.51, and that mark rises to 6.77 since June 1. The Red Sox average 4.6 runs per game on the road, which ranks 13th in the league. Boston starting pitcher Payton Tolle owns a 3.31 ERA with 9.6 strikeouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings, while the Athletics rank seventh in home scoring with nearly five runs per game.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Athletics Over 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.2
