The ATP and WTA Tours are currently in full swing, as the women are playing a 1000-level event in Doha and the men are competing in 500-level tournaments in Rotterdam, Buenos Aires, and Dallas. With that in mind, we have a lot to cover over the next couple of days. I’ll be writing up my tennis best bets from Monday to Friday, then I’ll post my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page on Sunday. That said, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Saturday, February 14.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Ugo Humbert vs. Alex de Minaur – Rotterdam
I had a play on Daniil Medvedev to win Rotterdam, but his opening-round encounter with Humbert always scared me. Humbert is a dangerous player when competing on indoor hard courts, and I figured he’d be the toughest player Medvedev would have to face until the late stages in the tournament. Well, Humbert ended up beating Medvedev. Now, the Frenchman is in the semifinals.
De Minaur is going to be a tough opponent for Humbert. The Australian is one of my favorites on the ATP Tour, and he came into this event as the betting favorite to lift the trophy. However, I do think this is a match that Humbert can keep close.
Humbert is the better server between these two players, and he’s 14-3 on indoor hard courts over the last 52 weeks. There’s no denying that de Minaur is a little more likely to win the longer exchanges in this match, but Humbert is more likely to put shots away earlier on.
There also hasn’t been much that has separated these players in recent matchups. The head-to-head history does favor de Minaur, as the Australian is 5-2 in seven career matchups. However, Humbert has either won a set or forced a tiebreaker in all seven of the matches. That doesn’t tell a story of a lopsided rivalry, and this -153 price to win a set will feel like a bargain if we end up in a tiebreaker situation.
I’m also not sure de Minaur does enough consistent damage off the forehand wing to take advantage of Humbert’s shaky backhand. De Minaur has also looked a little worse than usual throughout the week, and he was legitimately on Upset Watch in a tight three-setter against Botic van de Zandschulp last round. If he shows up with that level again here, he’s going to be sent home.
Bet: Humbert +1.5 Sets (-153 – 1.5 units) & Humbert ML (+200 – 0.5 units)
Karolina Muchova vs. Victoria Mboko – Doha
Mboko has been playing really well since the start of the season, and it’s pretty clear she’s a top-10 player in the sport. However, I do think Muchova is a tricky matchup for her. Mboko is a good mover, has a big serve, and can pummel the tennis ball. But she has yet to show the world that she has more than a fastball. Well, not having off-speed stuff can kill you against Muchova, who plays with more variety than anyone on the WTA Tour.
Muchova should be able to hold just as easily as Mboko in this match, even if she’s doing so by serving to spots rather than overpowering her. However, from the back of the court, Muchova has the ability to slice, hit with heavy topspin, and even mix in drop shots. She also has an elite transition game, plus the ability to win points at the net.
Also, while Mboko did win a 1000-level event last year, I trust Muchova’s poise and experience a little more late in a tournament like this. I’ll even add that playing in somewhat slower conditions neutralizes Mboko’s game a little, but it won’t do the same to Muchova.
Bet: Muchova ML (-123 – 2 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
