Bastad, Budapest, Gstaad, Hamburg, Newport, Palermo predictions and best bets for July 18th
This is a bit of an awkward stretch on the tennis schedule, as Wimbledon just ended and players are now competing all over the world. There’s another grass-court event on the schedule for the men this week, with some players battling it out in Newport. Meanwhile, a bunch of the others are turning their attention to clay-court tennis, and they’ll be doing that in Bastad, Gstaad and Hamburg. For a lot of these athletes, competing on clay is a good way to prepare for the Olympic Games. On the WTA side of things, the women are competing in Budapest and Palermo. But things won’t be as confusing in a few weeks. Once the action in Paris is over, we’ll transition to the exciting part of the hard-court season. However, we’re still treating this week like any other by searching for some tennis best bets. In fact, it’s a great week to bet on tennis, as we have six ATP and WTA events to choose from. That said, make sure you keep reading for my tennis predictions for Thursday, July 18th.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorites below, but I usually have more tennis picks on the Pro Picks page. I also occasionally add some plays throughout the day, as schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport. I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 521-521 (+40.31 units)
Sumit Nagal vs. Mariano Navone – Bastad
Navone was one of the breakout stars of the Golden Swing, where his consistent clay-court dominance helped him shoot up the rankings. Navone will now look to find his game again after going 0-3 in a short stint on grass. Navone should ultimately find a rhythm in this match, but I’d be surprised if Nagal doesn’t put up a fight here. Nagal has won two matches since getting back on the dirt, and he also played extremely well on clay at the Challenger level in June. This is just a battle between two guys that really up their games on this surface, and I would be surprised if we don’t see two long sets — or even a decider. The baseline play in this one should be rather fun to watch, as both guys play great defensive tennis. But they also go big when they get opportunities to pounce.
Bet: Over 21.5 Games (-125)
Ann Li vs. Erika Andreeva – Palermo
Li hasn’t done much on the WTA Tour this season, but she has been playing some dynamite clay-court tennis in the lower levels. Since the start of April, Li is 21-9 in the 30 matches she has played. Some of those wins have come over proven players, including a victory over Peyton Stearns in the opening round of this event. Meanwhile, Andreeva looked good in her 6-1, 6-2 win over Darja Semenistaja in this event, but she just played a grass-heavy schedule. So, I’m not sure she’ll be able to find a groove against a player like Li, who is going to be moving extremely well while also playing her usual brand of aggressive tennis. I also think that Li is going to do some really good work as a returner here, as Andreeva can be a bit shaky as a server. With all of that in mind, I think it’s clear why the books are hanging a plus-money number on Andreeva, who is ranked higher than her opponent. They’re hoping to catch people making the lazy pick.
Bet: Li ML (-150 – 1.5 units)
Rafael Nadal vs. Cameron Norrie – Bastad
Hugo Gaston vs. Alexander Zverev – Hamburg
Nadal has been grinding away on clay over the last few weeks. The 38-year-old decided to skip Wimbledon to get himself in the best shape possible for the Olympic Games. I actually think the Spaniard has a good shot at winning that event, especially after seeing him play against Leo Borg in his opening-round match here. Borg is not a good opponent by any stretch, but Nadal just wasn’t making the same mistakes he was making earlier in the clay-court season. He was a little sharper on serve, he was getting into games as a returner and he was hitting a lot cleaner from the baseline. He also just looked pretty healthy out there. That’s ultimately why I feel good about Nadal beating Norrie here. I didn’t think Norrie looked great in his win over Jozef Kovalik in the first round, and the Brit is just having a miserable 2024 season. If this was the Norrie of 2022 or 2023, I probably would have liked him against this version of Nadal. But I’d be pretty surprised if the Spaniard loses this, which is why I’m throwing it into a two-leg parlay.
For the second play, I’m rolling with the Over on 18.5 games in a meeting between Gaston and Zverev. This might seem like an extremely lopsided match, and it’s definitely one that Zverev should win. But the German is dealing with a knee injury right now, and Gaston is a feisty clay-court competitor. That makes it hard to envision a scenario in which Zverev completely steamrolls him. I think a 6-3, 6-4 win is pretty reasonable, and that would be good enough for a victory. I can also see one lengthy set pretty much securing this, or Gaston potentially stealing one.
PARLAY: Nadal ML + Gaston/Zverev Over 18.5 Games (+144)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
