The ATP and WTA Tours are currently in full swing. We’re just a week away from the start of the 2026 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, which is considered the “fifth Slam.” However, there’s still some high-leverage tennis to be played before that, as the men are playing 500-level events in Dubai and Acapulco — while others are playing in Santiago (250). Meanwhile, the women are in either Merida (500) or Austin (250). With that in mind, we have a lot to cover over the next couple of days. I’ll be writing up my tennis best bets from Monday to Friday, then I’ll post my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for Sunday. That said, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Tuesday, February 24.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Denis Shapovalov – Dubai
Shapovalov is coming off another lengthy run in Dallas. After having won the event last year, Shapovalov went all the way to the semifinals this year. That said, it’s hard to poke holes in the Canadian’s form right now. However, Carreno Busta has won four of his last five matches. All of the victories did come in qualifying, so you might want to take that with a grain of salt. But he did earn wins over Botic van de Zandschulp and Luca Nardi to get into the main draw here, and those are two players that have done some good things lately.
I just think that Carreno Busta can be a difficult matchup for Shapovalov, as he’s a very good counter-puncher and a high-IQ player. I know he isn’t as good as he used to be, but he still has a little left in the tank. I think there’s a good chance he’ll handle himself well in some of the longer rallies in this match, as his backhand is good enough to hold up against the Shapovalov forehand. I also love his forehand to break down the Shapovalov one-handed backhand.
Carreno Busta has also been pretty good against lefties in his career. According to Tennis Abstract, he’s 51-38 against southpaws at the tour level, and eight of those losses came against Rafael Nadal. Carreno Busta is also 5-2 in this very matchup, and he’s 5-1 against Shapovalov on hard courts.
Bet: Carreno Busta +1.5 Sets (-161 – 1.5 units) & Carreno Busta ML (+200 – 0.5 units)
Jenson Brooksby vs. Zizou Bergs – Dubai
Bergs is just 4-5 since the start of the 2026 season, but the eye test says that he has put his second-half struggles from 2025 behind him. Still, Bergs can be quite erratic, as he plays an aggressive brand of tennis. He wants to end rallies in a hurry, which is why he is such an up-and-down performer. Well, Brooksby is the exact opposite of that. The American is a counter-puncher and a grinder, looking to outlast his opponents. He’s going to get a lot of shots back in play, which could frustrate Bergs. Brooksby also plays with some variety, making it hard for opponents to find their rhythm. That’s another thing working against Bergs here. He might never get comfortable in this match.
Brooksby will just need to find a way to get the serve going. He’s holding at a 74.1% clip this season, and his ace rate is down at 2.4%. Those numbers are unacceptable for a player trying to play his way back into the top-50. But I do think he’s a little better with the ball on his racquet than he has shown lately, so there could be some positive regression coming soon.
Bet: Brooksby ML (-114)
Otto Virtanen vs. Tallon Griekspoor – Dubai
This is looking like a season from hell for Griekspoor so far, as he’s 3-7 and has been a little banged up. Griekspoor’s serve is normally a huge weapon, but it hasn’t been there to start this year. He’s also not playing as well when looking to swing out of his shoes from the back of the court. Well, Griekspoor’s early-season struggles make this look like a prime upset spot. Not only is the Dutchman struggling but Virtanen is much better than his ranking suggests. The 24-year-old is a dangerous all-courter, has a solid serve, and he’s starting to really find himself again.
Virtanen ended the 2025 season with some successful Challenger runs, and he comes into this one on a four-match winning streak. He also happened to beat both Aleksandar Vukic and Jan Lennard Struff in qualifying here, which should set him up well to play this match. Both of those guys are serve-heavy players, much like Griekspoor. That said, Virtanen should be ready for what’s coming. He just has to stay dialed in and hope his body doesn’t let him down.
Bet: Virtanen ML (+115)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
