The ATP and WTA Tours are back on hard courts, and the action is about to ramp up as the road to the 2026 US Open gets underway. With the summer swing now in full flow, this stretch is all about players sharpening their timing, adjusting to the conditions, and building momentum before New York. There’s a busy slate this week, giving us plenty to dig into across both tours as the hard-court season starts to take shape. I’ll be posting my tennis best bets Monday through Friday, then I’ll roll out my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for the weekend finals. With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for the Mubadala DC Open for Tuesday, July 28.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Kamil Majchrzak vs. Tommy Paul
While Paul would normally be a bet-on player in this tournament, I do wonder how he’ll adjust to life on tour after a wedding and honeymoon. If Paul is sluggish in any way, shape, or form, he loses his superpowers: his competitive fire and ability to grind. Majchrzak also happens to be a rock-solid player. He won a big title in ‘s-Hertogenbosch last month, and he’s 13-12 since the start of the season. Majchrzak is an aggressive player, so he’ll look to get Paul moving early. He’ll also try and utilize some drop shots to really test the American’s legs. Paul is understandably a big favorite here. All things equal, he’s a much better player than Majchrzak. But this is a tough opponent to come back to. I like Majchrzak’s chances of winning a set — and possibly winning the match.
Bet: Majchrzak +1.5 Sets (+100 – 1.5 units) & Majchrzak ML (+310 – 0.5 units)
Alexandra Eala vs. Qinwen Zheng
Eala is coming off an incredible grass-court season, going 12-4 in the short grass swing. It’s clear that surface really suits her game, as her weak serve becomes a little more dangerous with how it knifes through the court. Unfortunately for Eala, it’s all hard-court tennis from here. And while Eala is solid on this surface, this does seem like a brutal matchup. Zheng is still looking to find her game in her return from injury. The process has been long and tiring. But there’s a good chance it starts to happen in the coming weeks. Zheng is 86-48 on hard courts in her WTA career, and her big serves and aggressive baselining should make her a brutal draw for everyone the rest of the way. In this specific match, I just see Zheng having a much easier time holding serve, and I also envision her overpowering Eala from the back of the court.
Bet: Zheng ML (-142)
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Alex de Minaur
It’d be nice to be getting early 2026 pricing on Tsitsipas, but I’ll take any plus-money odds I can get here. Tsitsipas just picked up some confidence with a clay-court title in Gstaad, where he looked extremely comfortable shuffling his feet to set up his massive forehand. Moving over to a new surface will surely take a bit away, but he’s going to like his chances against de Minaur. Tsitsipas is 12-1 in this head-to-head series, and he has even found wins over de Minaur during some of the darkest stretches of his career. The reality is that de Minaur has to be playing flawless tennis in order to overcome the difference in weapons in this one. Also, de Minaur’s flat backhand doesn’t get up high enough to bother the vulnerable Tsitsipas one-handed backhand in cross-court exchanges. I’ll also add that de Minaur is another player that got married recently, so he’s facing the same thing as Paul. He’s also dealing with quite a bit of pressure, as he’s the defending champion here and can lose a bunch of points if he doesn’t win the event.
Bet: Tsitsipas ML (+103 – 2 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
