MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, July 28.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt has been superb since rejoining the starting rotation, allowing only seven runs across 27 innings over his past five starts. However, he faces a Pirates lineup that leads the league in home scoring with nearly 5.6 runs per game. Overall this season, Pfaadt owns a 4.43 ERA with only 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Pirates starting pitcher Bubba Chandler has a 4.47 ERA with five walks per nine innings but has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his past seven starts.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -112
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -134
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
The Marlins entered the series without a win since the All-Star break but have an advantageous pitching matchup against Aaron Nola, who owns a 5.82 ERA with 2.1 home runs and three walks allowed per nine innings. He is supported by a Phillies lineup that ranks 27th in road scoring with 3.9 runs per game. Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara owns a 4.01 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.4 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -108
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -132 and Total 8.6
6:45 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals
Blue Jays starting pitcher Shane Bieber owns a 4.70 ERA and a 5.82 fielding independent with 2.1 home runs and 3.5 walks allowed per nine innings. Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli has a 3.58 ERA and a 3.12 fielding independent with 10.3 strikeouts and only 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he is supported by a bullpen that ranks 28th in ERA at 5.01.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Nationals Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
7:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
The Royals rank last in the league in road run production with fewer than 3.7 runs per game and are now without Bobby Witt Jr., who is on the injured list. Compounding those issues, they face Twins starting pitcher Taj Bradley. While Bradley owns a 3.69 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.6 walks allowed per nine innings overall this season, he enters in his best form, having allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts. Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo has been solid with a 4.36 ERA while allowing 1.1 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Royals vs. Twins Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
9:38 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Astros starting pitcher Peter Lambert owns a 3.03 ERA, but his 4.03 fielding independent and 3.5 walks per nine innings point toward regression. Angels starter Reid Detmers has pitched better than his 4.05 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.28 fielding independent with 10.2 strikeouts and one home run allowed per nine innings. The Angels bullpen has also improved significantly since June 1, ranking eighth in ERA at 3.43 during that span.
Pick: Angels Moneyline -108
Greg’s Handicap: Angels -126
9:40 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
It has been a rough season for Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen, who owns a 6.53 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.5 walks allowed per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA at 5.01. Padres starting pitcher Michael King may be due for regression on his 3.24 ERA, as he is recording only 7.8 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine innings. He faces a Rockies lineup that has been much better than in past seasons, ranking 16th in road run production with 4.4 runs per game.
Pick: Padres Run Line -1.5 +120 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -1.5 -117 and Total 8.6
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics
Red Sox starting pitcher Jake Bennett has been excellent at inducing soft contact, posting a 2.58 ERA while allowing only 0.6 home runs and 1.4 walks per nine innings. However, he is pitching to plenty of contact with only 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Athletics starting pitcher Gage Jump has struggled recently, allowing at least four runs, with at least three earned, in four of his past five starts. His ERA sits at 6.35 at home compared to 2.51 on the road. He faces a Red Sox lineup that entered the series averaging 4.6 runs per game away from home, which ranks 13th in the league, while the Athletics rank seventh in home scoring with nearly five runs per game.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Athletics Over 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.7
