The ATP and WTA Tours are fully into the North American hard-court swing, and this week brings our first true benchmark events with the 1000-level stops in Montreal and Toronto. With the US Open now on the horizon, this stretch is where contenders start to separate, dialing in their timing, adjusting to quicker conditions, and building real momentum against elite fields.
These tournaments carry significant weight on both tours, giving us a strong read on form, fitness, and potential title paths heading into New York. There’s no shortage of high-level matches to break down, so we’ll have plenty to work with as the week unfolds. I’ll be posting my tennis best bets Monday through Friday, then rolling out my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for the weekend finals.
With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for the National Bank Open on Wednesday, August 5.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Alex Michelsen vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Cerundolo hasn’t been playing well lately. Ever since he won a title at Queen’s Club, he has been bounced early in back-to-back events. The Argentinean is now searching for form, which is why he finds himself as a big underdog against Michelsen. However, Cerundolo will eventually snap out of this funk, and timing his increase in level could end up being profitable. And realistically, there’s no reason it can’t happen here. We have seen Cerundolo play well on faster hard courts before, with Miami being one of his favorite events. That said, why can’t he put things together and win a few matches over the next couple of months?
In looking at some of the numbers, it’s hard to find many areas in which Michelsen is better than Cerundolo. The Argentinean has a hard-court Elo Rating of 1855.7, which is a bit higher than Michelsen’s 1829.9. Cerundolo’s 2026 Elo Rating of 1887.9 is also higher than Michelsen’s 1847.4. On top of all of that, over the last 52 weeks, TennisViz’s tracked tournaments have Cerundolo with a Performance Rating of 7.83 and Michelsen with a Performance Rating of 7.36.
The only major advantage Michelsen will have over Cerundolo here is the backhand. The American is tremendous from that wing. Outside of that, Cerundolo is the better returner, he has a much better forehand, and he should do better in longer exchanges. There’s a reason he won 6-3, 6-1 when these two met in Vienna last season.
I can easily see Michelsen winning this match, as he’s in better form at the moment. I just can’t get on board with this pricing.
Bet: Cerundolo ML (+150)
Cameron Norrie vs. Ignacio Buse
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Arthur Rinderknech
Buse has been one of this season’s breakout players, but he’s at his best on clay. He still has to figure out how to make his mark on hard courts, and Norrie should be a very difficult opponent for him. Norrie is coming off a nice 7-6 (5), 6-4 win over another clay-court specialist, and the Brit is now 4-1 in the five hard-court matches he has played since Wimbledon. His ability to grind from the back of the court should ultimately lead to some breakdowns from Buse, who is just 1-5 in hard-court matches and 2-6 against lefties in his ATP career.
To get a better price on Norrie, I’m taking Kecmanovic to win a set against Rinderknech. I can easily see this being a match in which the Frenchman comes out on top, but I’d be stunned if he doesn’t have to work for it. Kecmanovic might be a worse server than Rinderknech, but he’s better than the Frenchman everywhere else. Kecmanovic is also most lethal on quicker hard courts, where his ability to step into the court and take balls early really rushes opponents. That’ll be something Rinderknech struggles to deal with, as he’s not a great mover.
PARLAY: Norrie ML & Kecmanovic +1.5 Sets (+104 – 1.5 units)
Alina Korneeva vs. Emma Navarro
This is going to be a fascinating match, as these players go about their business in different ways. Korneeva is a player that can really rip the ball from the back of the court, playing a punishing style that can be hard for opponents to handle when she’s striking it well. Meanwhile, Navarro really wants to be a counter-puncher and grind out wins. Well, Navarro did find her game during the grass-court season, but this is a match that could trouble her. She’s not moving quite as well as she used to, so there’s a chance Korneeva pushes her around a bit.
Korneeva also has the easier path to quick holds, as she can be flat-out dominant as a server when she’s running hot. Well, the Russian is running hot right now. Since the start of Roland Garros qualifying, Korneeva is 12-5 and has been super competitive in most of the losses. She was also pounding Polina Kudermetova before she was forced to retire in her opening-round match here. She just feels like a very live ‘dog in this one.
Bet: Korneeva ML (+118)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
