Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Wednesday, August 5 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Maria Louise (3rd race)
Third Race
1. Maria Louise
2. Noble Glow
3. Wedelia
MARIA LOUISE is by Gun Runner, from multiple Grade 1 route winner Stopchargingmaria, and she has been training strongly up to this debut for Pletcher; looks ready to go. NOBLE GLOW made one start late last year as a juvenile, where she got involved on a competitive pace from the start and was the lone survivor to midstretch, before the closers came along to fill that race out; might be better than that running line makes her look, and her speed plays from the chute; Lasix on. WEDELIA has caught sloppy tracks in both starts so far. She looked like she was in the debut to get experience when taken back to last and sitting behind horses for a long way, before making a mild run through the stretch; she was more involved when stretched out around two turns in that last one, but could not threaten the winner in the stretch and settled for a clear second; logical turning back for a hot barn.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other nine races on Wednesday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Fil Dor
2. McTigue
3. Roja Redemption
FIL DOR won a Grade 1 late last year; was cutting back sharply last time after running well in a three-mile race off the layoff. McTIGUE parlayed a nice trip into a Grade 1 win over course and distance last time; logical right back. ROJA REDEMPTION has looked good while posting three blowout wins from his first six starts over jumps; way up in class and distance for this.
Second Race
1. Quiddity
2. Allegro Brillant
3. Fabian’s Princess
QUIDDITY earned a solid 70 Beyer rallying into second in her debut as a 2-year-old; she bumped a rival while forcing her way off the inside in the stretch, leading to a disqualification, but she still ran well that day, and she faced tougher open MSW rivals in both starts after that, including the final start of 2025 when rated wide off a slow pace; big rider change for the return, and Hennig already has a pair of maiden winners returning from 180+ day layoffs this year. ALLEGRO BRILLANT is out of a dam who won four times in her career, including the debut, and there is some quality in this female family; trainer can have one ready to go first time out — 2 for his last 5 with firsters going seven furlongs on dirt, $5.24 ROI — and she has looked good breezing up to this. FABIAN’S PRINCESS caught slop in her lone start last year, where she showed speed behind Braverthnaubelieve, who won a $500,000 stakes race in he next start with a 77 Beyer; starts back with Lasix and blinkers, and Prat sticks.
Fourth Race
1. Unreasonable
2. Serendipity
3. Relaxx
UNREASONABLE had an excuse when running poorly in her first Saratoga start last summer; pulled a better trip and won convincingly when given more distance to work with six weeks later, then ran well again when shipped to Kentucky Downs before the layoff; dropped and turned back in distance last time, where she finished a very good second to a talented filly who was allowed to control the pace. SERENDIPITY dominated up front in each of her first two wins, including a Grade 3 on synthetic where she was just allowed to walk on the lead; went a much stronger pace while looking fresh off the bench last time, and had little left in the late stages to fight off a perfectly-ridden closer; dangerous speed if she is tighter for this, as expected. RELAXX was competitive in stakes company right along in France as a 2- and 3-year-old; she did give off the impression that she would prefer longer distances while lacking acceleration in some of those races, and she took a step forward when stretched out last time; cuts back two furlongs for this.
Fifth Race
1. Imagine John
2. Tripp’s Promise
3. Life Is Gravy
IMAGINE JOHN steadily improved through four starts on this track last summer, culminating with a determined maiden win with the addition of blinkers; has shown the expected improvement in two starts so far at 3, and had done so in two much tougher races than this one; looks like a better fit here as he breaks outside the speed. TRIPP’S PROMISE is best as a rallying sprinter, though he is also a very good gate horse, so he is not always left with a lot to do in the stretch; lands in a race that projects to set up well for him, with plenty of speed signed on. LIFE IS GRAVY tried a longer race that was dominated up close last time, and closers were up against it on the main track all day on 7/16; was steadily improving as a sprinter before that; right in the mix with one more slight step forward as he cuts back in a race with some pace to come after.
Sixth Race
1. Queenly
2. Without Hesitation
3. Not My Niche
QUEENLY is out of a dam who won twice sprinting on turf, and is a half-sister to three multiple winners (one stakes winner); turf work on 7/10 came in company with Extravaganzoo, who was an impressive maiden winner over course and distance early in the meet; Weaver excels with horses like this — past five years, 2-year-old, first-time starter, turf, sprint: 30%, $3.92 ROI, 4 for 9 at Saratoga in this sample, $4.38 ROI. WITHOUT HESITATION sold for $2.3 million after blitzing a furlong in 9.3 in April; he doesn’t have a pedigree that screams turf, but he has been working on this surface up to the debut, and he scratched from an off-turf race last Friday, despite the main track being fast; Ward is aces with 2-year-old, but is just 1 for 29 over the past five years when debuting juveniles in turf sprints in NY ($0.24 ROI). NOT MY NICHE shows all dirt works up to this for top connections; like this sire with turf horses, and the dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Data Link; something to hold on to at a fair price.
Seventh Race
1. Abrigado
2. Implacable
3. Draft Riots
ABRIGADO didn’t exactly pan out as a 2-year-old after these connections paid up for him in March, though he did face Ted Noffey in the debut, then tried turf before the layoff; did his best to no avail when brought back to face a tougher field last month in Kentucky; figures tough taking a big drop with blinkers going on. IMPLACABLE earned a field-best 75 Beyer when turned back to sprint back in January; showed speed and gave way in his next start, then was given some time off before returning from the layoff to try grass; back to dirt, and he also drops sharply for this with blinkers going back on. DRAFT RIOTS failed to last after showing speed in each of his first two starts on fast dirt, including that first one back from the layoff in April; tried the grass to no avail last time after switching barns; has much in common with the top two, as he also drops while adding blinkers.
Eighth Race
1. Ashikidah
2. Brisbane
3. Marketplaceofideas
ASHIKIDAH arrived in good form from France, and she ran well in her stateside debut when making a bid in the deep stretch before flattening out a bit; can easily build on that one; tough if she does. BRISBANE ran well in all four starts to begin her career in France; missed 18 months before returning to post an impressive win in her stateside debut, then missed another 600 days; got in a useful run when trying a wide move from late in stakes company off the layoff, and finished just ahead of ASHIKIDAH last time; dangerous right back. MARKETPLACEOFIDEAS has improved to win both starts so far as a 4-year-old for top connections; steps up to face tougher, but she still has forward to go.
Ninth Race
1. Usha
2. Munnings Express
3. With the Angels
USHA was a Grade 1 winner with a 99 Beyer in her final start as a 3-year-old in California, and she ran well in each of her first two starts this year without winning, also while in against much tougher; steps back in class with speed. MUNNINGS EXPRESS is tactical and talented; back quickly and back in with NY-breds after holding her own in open company recently. WITH THE ANGELS tried turf last time to no avail; open stakes winner is better on dirt, and she is undefeated against state-breds on the main track.
Tenth Race
1. Bourboncentric
2. Rossbeigh
3. Classic Commander
BOURBONCENTRIC was the lone first-time starter in that field when sitting close to a strong pace after having to let a long shot clear to the lead, and then bumping in the stretch when trying to edge out for room; pulled a wide trip before finding a game late finish last time; has shown some flashes; enters right back at the same level while adding blinkers as he looks to put it all together. ROSSBEIGH has come up short in his three starts so far, all at this level, and he was the favorite in the last two; has been protected by the waiver in both starts as a 4-year-old, so perhaps he needed some conditioning; looks like the one to beat. CLASSIC COMMANDER ran a good race to be along for second after a poor start two back; was once again off slowly, before passing some horses late last time; needs this class drop, but he also needs a trip.
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