The ATP and WTA Tours are currently in full swing, as the women are playing a 1000-level event in Doha and the men are competing in 500-level tournaments in Rotterdam, Buenos Aires, and Dallas. With that in mind, we have a lot to cover over the next couple of days. I’ll be writing up my tennis best bets from Monday to Friday, then I’ll post my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page on Sunday. That said, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Wednesday, February 11.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Camila Osorio vs. Jelena Ostapenko – Doha
Scheduled for 7:00 am ET
Osorio is an absolute ball machine, utilizing her incredible speed and fighting spirit to try and get everything back in play. That makes her an interesting opponent for an out-of-form Ostapenko. There’s no denying Ostapenko’s ceiling is higher than Osorio’s on any given day, as the Latvian is one of the best ball-strikers on the WTA Tour. However, when she’s not playing her best tennis, she can miss wildly. She’s also not the greatest mover in the world. That makes it hard to believe in her winning this match.
Osorio, who is a good returner, is likely going to put a lot of pressure on Ostapenko’s serve. She’s also going to look to hit with heavy topspin from the baseline, doing whatever she can to get Ostapenko off balance.
Osorio has also been playing some great tennis throughout the week, so she should come into this one with sky-high confidence.
Bet: Osorio ML (+116)
Jenson Brooksby vs. Tommy Paul – Dallas
James Duckworth vs. Eliot Spizzirri – Dallas
Brooksby beat Paul when the two met in Houston last year, but that was a clay-court match. Paul has never lost to Brooksby on a hard court, and I can’t see him allowing his younger compatriot to beat him twice in a row. Paul was also a little shaky from a health standpoint for a good chunk of last season, but he’s doing much better now. That should make a difference in a matchup that is sure to feature some lengthy rallies. But ultimately, the differences here should be the serves and returns. Over the last 52 weeks, in non-majors, Paul’s 7.8 Serve Quality from TennisViz is way better than Brooksby’s 7.2. Paul’s Return Quality of 7.0 is also much higher than Brooksby’s 6.4. It’s hard to win matches when you’re not holding as easily as your opponent, and that should be the world Brooksby will be living in here. Paul should also be ready to go from the baseline. I just expect him to be super locked in after the loss last year.
The other match is a little more straightforward. Spizzirri has just looked way better than Duckworth this season. The American made a run to the quarterfinals in Auckland, where he beat Adrian Mannarino and Nuno Borges. He also beat Joao Fonseca and Yibing Wu at the Australian Open, and he gave Jannik Sinner a serious run for his money in their Round of 32 match. In fact, many believe Spizzirri was on his way to winning that match, but Sinner got extremely lucky with the hot weather triggering a roof closure. Before that, the Italian was essentially out on his feet. Well, Spizzirri is now facing a player that has less talent than him, making this a match he should be able to handle. Spizzirri should be comfortable playing in Texas, as he played his college tennis for the Longhorns. And I’m not sure Duckworth has any true advantages out there.
PARLAY: Paul ML & Spizzirri ML (-116 – 1.5 units)
Alejandro Tabilo vs. Joao Fonseca – Buenos Aires
Scheduled for 4:30 pm ET
Fonseca’s back issues seem to be a real problem, but the young Brazilian now claims he is 100% healthy. He actually spent some time with some serious sports doctors after the Australian Open, so I’m hoping he got some good feedback. This is a player with the potential to win Grand Slams in the near future, so it’d be a shame if he can’t get himself right.
If Fonseca really is healthy, this is a match I think he’ll win. Tabilo is undoubtedly a dangerous player, but Fonseca should be able to out-hit him in a battle between two players that look to win with their weapons. Also, the speeds of the courts in Buenos Aires should make things a little easier on Fonseca. That’ll be big for the 19-year-old, as movement isn’t yet one of his strengths. If anything, it’s a weakness.
It’s just hard to overlook the fact that Fonseca nearly beat Tabilo in 2024, losing 4-6, 7-6 (5), 6-4 when they met on clay in Bucharest. That was back when Tabilo was in the midst of a career year on the ATP Tour, and Fonseca hadn’t yet had his true breakout. A few years later, Tabilo is a below-average tour-level player, while Fonseca has proven that he has the goods.
I simply have Fonseca a little closer to 70% to win this match, meaning some serious value on -150 and that implied probability of 60%. The only reason I’m not going bigger on this is that Fonseca’s lack of match play is a little concerning. However, I’m not willing to completely pass. This is where Fonseca won his first ATP Tour title, and he should have some serious crowd support.
Bet: Fonseca ML (-150)
2026 ATP/WTA Record: 116-119 (+25.67 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
