The ATP and WTA Tours are currently in full swing. We’re just a week away from the start of the 2026 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, which is considered the “fifth Slam.” However, there’s still some high-leverage tennis to be played before that, as the men are playing 500-level events in Dubai and Acapulco — while others are playing in Santiago (250). Meanwhile, the women are in either Merida (500) or Austin (250). With that in mind, we have a lot to cover over the next couple of days. I’ll be writing up my tennis best bets from Monday to Friday, then I’ll post my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for Sunday. That said, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Wednesday, February 25.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Yannick Hanfmann vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli – Santiago
Ugo Carabelli can be a dangerous clay-court player, but his main-draw results have been pretty disappointing recently. He’s just 2-6 at the ATP level since the start of the 2026 season, and he hasn’t looked great since the start of the Golden Swing. Well, Ugo Carabelli, who is mostly a defensive-minded grinder, now has to face a big, powerful player in Santiago, where the conditions are server-friendly and reward quicker points more than most clay-court events. With that in mind, it isn’t hard to imagine him picking up another loss.
Hanfmann is just a much better server than Ugo Carabelli, and his 6-0, 6-3 win over Dusan Lajovic in the Round of 32 shows you how tough it can be to face him in these quicker clay conditions. On faster clay, Hanfmann has the firepower he needs to play offense, but he also has a little more time on the ball as a returner — and that time also helps him when rallies do drag out.
It’s also worth noting that Hanfmann has a better clay-court winning percentage (53.2% vs. 48.8%) than Ugo Carabelli, despite the fact that the latter is essentially a clay-court specialist. Hanfmann is simply the superior player.
Bet: Hanfmann ML (-138)
Taylor Townsend vs. Nikola Bartunkova – Austin
Townsend really hasn’t played a lot of singles this year. This is her first tournament since an opening-round loss at the Australian Open, and she was able to pull out a 4-6, 7-6 (3), 7-5 win over Linda Fruhvirtova in the Round of 32. However, it was clear that the southpaw was rusty in that one, and it’s just hard to imagine her sticking around for long here — even with the crowd firmly in her corner.
Bartunkova is a phenomenal player. She’s powerful, she has variety, and she’s relatively fearless. That’s why she was able to make a splash at the Australian Open, and her rise should be quick from here. That said, this is a tricky second-round matchup for Townsend. The American normally has a pretty big advantage over opponents when it comes to touch and feel, but Bartunkova has both. She also has the superior athleticism, along with the better overall form in 2026.
Bet: Bartunkova ML (-110)
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Jiri Lehecka – Dubai
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Jack Draper – Dubai
I liked Carreno Busta’s chances against Denis Shapovalov, as he has had success in that matchup in the past. He also has a strong track record when it comes to defeating lefties. However, I do think this is a tougher matchup for the Spaniard. Lehecka is a more consistent server than Shapovalov, he brings some real power from the baseline, and his game is a little more solid — even if he’s not quite as mobile. Also, over the last 52 weeks, Lehecka’s TennisViz Performance Rating of 7.57 in non-Slams is just way higher than Carreno Busta’s 6.70. So, when looking for something to parlay on Wednesday, this one popped off the page.
To get a better price on Lehecka moneyline, I’m taking Draper to beat Rinderknech. I’d normally be worried about Draper coming off an injury, but he just won a match that should look a lot like this one. Draper beat Quentin Halys 7-6 (8), 6-3 in the Round of 32, beating another one-note player that is disappointing when it comes to everything but the serve. That’s significant when thinking about this stage of Draper’s comeback, as he’s capable of winning those lengthy, serve-bot battles if his all-around game isn’t there. It might take him some time to find his best stuff from the back of the court, but his C-level tennis from the baseline is probably as good as Rinderknech’s A-level.
PARLAY: Lehecka ML & Draper ML (-128)
Added Plays
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina To Win Acapulco (+500 – 1.5 units)
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
