It might feel like the US Open marks the end of tennis season, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. We still have a few 1000-level events left — plus the ATP and WTA Finals — and some of them are taking place right now. The men are currently in Shanghai for the Rolex Shanghai Masters at Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena. Meanwhile, the women are in Wuhan for a 1000 of their own: the Wuhan Open. With that in mind, keep reading for some tennis best bets, focusing on the action on Wednesday, October 8 and Thursday, October 9.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Jessica Pegula
Alexandrova has enjoyed this head-to-head series over the years. These two have met four times since the start of 2024, with Alexandrova winning three of the encounters. The most recent one also happened to be the most lopsided yet, with Alexandrova winning 6-0, 6-4 in Stuttgart. That match was played on clay, so maybe you don’t want to factor it in too much. However, Pegula’s only win over Alexandrova over the last two years was on clay. Also, her one win over Alexandrova before 2024 came on clay as well. Alexandrova is 2-0 against Pegula on hard courts, and I think we’ll see her move to 3-0.
Alexandrova’s uber-aggressive baseline game just makes Pegula uncomfortable. The American is normally very good at re-directing pace — while also coming up with some big shots on her own — but Alexandrova’s massive groundstrokes make it so that Pegula never has a second to breathe. And on hard courts, where big cuts and clean groundstrokes are rewarded a little more, Alexandrova’s bold style wins out over Pegula’s all-court ability.
Alexandrova is also a little better when it comes to putting first serves in the box (69.3% vs. 67.7% over last 52 weeks). That small edge could make the difference if this is a close battle, like the two previous hard-court matches they have played.
Bet: Alexandrova ML (+100 – 1.5 units)
Clara Tauson vs. Jasmine Paolini
The last time Tauson and Paolini played was in Beijing in 2024, when the Italian came away with a 1-6, 7-5, 6-4 victory. That match really could have gone either way, and this one is the same. That’s why Tauson is a good play at +112. I have this as a genuine 50-50.
Paolini is 25-10 on hard courts this season, which isn’t much better than Tauson’s 24-12 record. And I’d argue that Tauson is in better form entering this one. While Paolini is coming off an absolute war against Yue Yuan, winning 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, Tauson beat Olga Danilovic and Antonia Ruzic in straight sets. The win over Ruzic was impressive too. The Croatian had been playing some good tennis heading into that match, but Tauson made quick work of her, 6-4, 6-0.
When Tauson is playing well, she can be very hard to beat. She absolutely spanks the ball from the back of the court, she has a big serve, and she’s pretty fearless in going for her shots. So, with her in form right now, perhaps this is a little more like 55-45 in favor of the Dane.
Bet: Tauson ML (+112)
Zizou Bergs vs. Novak Djokovic
A few weeks ago, it would have been very hard to make the case for Bergs winning a set — and potentially a match — against Djokovic. The Belgian was ice cold all summer, and it got so bad that he played — and lost his opening-round match — in a Challenger in Sumter to try and find some confidence. But the Asian Swing has brought out the best in Bergs. While he won just one of his three matches in Chengdu and Tokyo, he looked a little more competitive in losses. Now, in Shanghai, he’s rolling. Bergs has earned wins over Sebastian Korda, Casper Ruud, Francisco Cerundolo, and Gabriel Diallo. He’s looking the part of a top-25 player.
Djokovic hasn’t looked nearly as sharp. His wins over Marin Cilic, Yannick Hanfmann, and Jaume Munar all featured tense moments. He doesn’t look dialed in with his actual tennis, and he’s struggling with the conditions. That should open the door for a solid all-around player like Bergs to give him a run for his money.
Bet: Bergs +1.5 Sets (-102) & Bergs ML (+333 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
