It might feel like the US Open marks the end of tennis season, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. We still have a few 1000-level events left — plus the ATP and WTA Finals — and some of them are taking place right now. The men are currently in Shanghai for the Rolex Shanghai Masters at Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena. Meanwhile, the women are in Wuhan for a 1000 of their own: the Wuhan Open. With that in mind, keep reading for some tennis best bets, focusing on the action on Thursday, October 9 and Friday, October 10.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Katerina Siniakova vs. Jessica Pegula
I mentioned this on my Thursday spot on A Numbers Game, but Siniakova has looked like the best player in Wuhan so far. The Czech had to go through qualifying to get into the main draw, but she has won all five of her matches in straight sets. Two of those wins were very impressive, with Siniakova beating Diana Shnaider 6-4, 6-4 and Maya Joint 6-3, 6-1. She’s just looking relentless as a returner, her baseline game has been overpowering, and she’s serving pretty well.
Siniakova should now be able to push Pegula, who played a grueling match against Ekaterina Alexandrova last round. Alexandrova probably should have won that match, but she blew a 5-2 first-set lead and you can’t afford to do that against the best players. Still, Pegula’s level was inconsistent throughout the course of that one, and I’m not sure I see her winning this thing in straight sets — if she wins it at all.
In the four meetings between these two since 2021, we have seen Siniakova win at least a set twice. She also has a win against Pegula. I’d also say that this is maybe the best run of form she’s been on when heading into a match against Pegula, and the American isn’t performing at her usual level. Pegula seems ripe to get upset.
Bet: Siniakova +1.5 Sets (-149 – 1.5 units) & Siniakova ML (+185 – 0.5 units)
Elena Rybakina vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Rybakina beat up on Sabalenka when these two met in Cincinnati this year, but that straight-set win was a bit of an outlier when looking at this head-to-head series. These two generally engage in long, tense battles, as they had played three three-set matches in a row before clashing in Cincy. Also, eight of the 12 matches they have played against one another have gone to a deciding third set. One of the ones that didn’t featured a tiebreaker, so it was very close to getting there. That said, playing the Over on 2.5 sets feels like a good move at +138 odds. I prefer chasing the bigger payout here than going with the Over on the game total.
Bet: Over 2.5 Sets (+138)
Shanghai Futures
I’m adding Alex de Minaur (+300) and Felix Auger Aliassime (+500) to win the tournament. I already have de Minaur to make the semifinals, and I wish I fired on the Australian before the event started. I was strongly considering doing so, but the presence of Jannik Sinner was frightening. With Sinner out, I really think the winner will be one of these two. I know Novak Djokovic is in the bottom half of the draw, and people really like the Serb to raise another big trophy. However, Djokovic continues to look like he’s struggling with the grueling conditions in Shanghai. That makes it hard to envision him beating de Minaur, who would drag him into a physical war. And Auger Aliassime has the potential to do what Jakub Mensik did to Djokovic in Miami, which is serve him off the court and overwhelm him with big ball-striking.
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.