It might feel like the US Open marks the end of tennis season, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. We still have a few 1000-level events left — plus the ATP and WTA Finals — and one of them is taking place in Shanghai right now. That’s right, the Rolex Shanghai Masters is under way from Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena. This hard-court tournament has a strong field, and we’re going to be doing our best to cover it. With that in mind, keep reading for some Day 2 Shanghai tennis best bets, focusing on the action on Wednesday, October 1 and Thursday, October 2.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Nuno Borges
Borges has taken some bad losses lately, which is interesting for a player that is normally so steady. In mid-September, in Davis Cup action, Borges lost to both Ignacio Buse and Gonzalo Bueno. He then struggled a bit in a win over Yosuke Watanuki in Tokyo, where it looked like he was on his way to losing before his opponent’s body broke down in the heat. Borges does deserve some credit for pushing Taylor Fritz in a 7-5, 7-6 (4) loss in Tokyo last week, and his level in that match was closer to what we’re used to. But overall, the form hasn’t been there for Borges recently, and van de Zandschulp should be able to take advantage.
The conditions in Shanghai favor quick-strike tennis, which we’re going to get from van de Zandschulp. While the Dutchman is a good mover for a player his size, he wants rallies to be as short as possible. We saw him ride a strong serve-plus-one to a title in Winston-Salem in August, and the court speeds in Shanghai will only make things a little easier on him.
Van de Zandschulp is also an aggressive returner. He’s going to step inside the baseline and put pressure on Borges, who has been struggling to land first serves. Borges’ first-serve in percentage is 67.2% in 2025, but he has made fewer than 60% of his first serves in four of his last seven ATP-level matches.
Bet: Van de Zandschulp ML (-119)
Yibing Wu vs. Dalibor Svrcina
Wu’s health has been a problem all throughout his career, but he’s pretty easily a top-50 talent on the ATP Tour. Wu has an explosive baseline game, regularly hammering shots from the back of the court. That makes him tough to beat when he’s clicking. Well, a good argument can be made that he’s clicking right now. Two weeks ago, in Hangzhou, Wu beat Adrian Mannarino, Sebastian Korda, and Daniil Medvedev before coming up short against Alexander Bublik in the semifinals. He also won all three of those matches in deciding third sets, proving that he has built up his match fitness.
If Wu’s body doesn’t let him down here — which isn’t a guarantee in these conditions — he shouldn’t lose to Svrcina, who is talented but has won only five tour-level matches in his career. Wu is playing in China, where he should have the crowd and be very comfortable with his surroundings. That, combined with the fact that he’s just the better player, was enough to trigger a play for me. And it would have been a bigger play if Wu wasn’t so injury-prone. This match will firmly be on the 25-year-old’s racquet.
Bet: Wu ML (-146)
Christopher O’Connell vs. Damir Dzumhur
If O’Connell is healthy, this is a match he should win. The Australian has been productive playing off-hours in his career, which could have something to do with growing up in Sydney. O’Connell won a Challenger-level event in Guangzhou last year, and he was playing some good tennis in that same event before having to retire from his semi-final match against Alejandro Tabilo this year. Still, even with that retirement, O’Connell has won five matches on this recent Asian Swing, including two at the ATP level, in Chengdu. And last year, from Guangzhou to Shanghai, he went 9-3 in his 12 matches. Meanwhile, Dzumhur is 0-2 since arriving in Asia this year, and he’s also 2-6 in his last eight matches overall. He’s not in great form at the moment.
O’Connell’s 79.2% hold percentage over the last 52 weeks is hard to ignore here, as Dzumhur has held at only 70.8% in his career. Racking up holds should come a little easier for O’Connell, especially in quicker conditions. O’Connell should do a lot of damage when he sees the Dzumhur second serve.
Dzumhur can also be quite erratic from the back of the court, and O’Connell is a better grinder than he is given credit for. He might be able. to get some errors out of Dzumhur in this match. I also think the O’Connell forehand will be the biggest weapon on the court in these conditions, and he’s smart enough to know that peppering the Dzumhur backhand is a good pathway to victory.
Bet: O’Connell ML (-150 – 1.5 units)
Alejandro Tabilo vs. Marcos Giron
This is going to sound strange to the casual tennis fan, but Tabilo is the hottest player on the planet outside of Carlos Alcaraz. The Chilean comes into this match having won 13 of his last 15 matches, and he has earned wins over some good players in that time — like Jordan Thompson, Luciano Darderi, Brandon Nakashima, and Lorenzo Musetti. The only thing to worry about with Tabilo is fatigue. He has played a lot of matches in the span of a month, and that caught up to him in a Round of 32 loss to Zizou Bergs in Tokyo. But Tabilo has rebounded nicely since that loss, winning two qualifying matches here in straight sets.
Tabilo is going to have a big advantage in the power department when he takes on Giron, who is good on hard courts but prefers the slower ones. Giron is also just 3-7 since getting back on hard courts in Washington DC over the summer. He also has a losing record against lefties in his career.
There’s a good amount that suggests Tabilo should win this match, which is why I’m playing it somewhat big. Let’s just hope that Giron doesn’t grind Tabilo down, which isn’t out of the question. The American is a wall along the baseline, so he could get to Tabilo if he can turn this into a long, drag-it-out affair.
Bet: Tabilo ML (-120 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
PARLAY: Arthur Cazaux ML vs. Pedro Martinez & Valentin Royer ML vs. Mariano Navone (-120)
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
