It might feel like the US Open marks the end of tennis season, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. We still have a few 1000-level events left — plus the ATP and WTA Finals — and one of them is taking place in Shanghai right now. That’s right, the Rolex Shanghai Masters is under way from Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena. This hard-court tournament has a strong field, and we’re going to be doing our best to cover it. With that in mind, keep reading for some Day 3 Shanghai tennis best bets, focusing on the action on Thursday, October 2 and Friday, October 3.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
David Goffin vs. Ben Shelton
Goffin looked good in his win over Alexandre Muller in the Round of 128. The Belgian was up a break in the first set, but he played a loose service game when he tried to serve it out. Muller broke and ended up winning the tiebreaker. But from there, it was one-way traffic, with Goffin winning the next two sets, 6-1, 6-1.
Goffin is a two-time quarterfinalist at this event, so he clearly enjoys the playing conditions. Now, he’s going to take on a rusty Shelton, who we haven’t seen since the US Open. Shelton was on fire heading into the final major of the year, but he went down with a shoulder injury and had to retire in the fifth set of his match against Adrian Mannarino. I’m curious to see how the American will deal with the time off. Because of how big he plays, he can be prone to some ugly performances, and Goffin is the type of solid player that can bring that out of him.
Goffin also has a win over Shelton this season, as he beat the American 7-6 (3), 6-3 in Acapulco. Those conditions were a little slower, which helped Goffin quite a bit. But I still think the Belgian’s game can trouble Shelton on these faster hard courts. He’s just smart when it comes to point construction, he knows when to come forward, and he’s not going to be bothered when Shelton inevitably cracks a big ace or goes big for a winner. He’ll move on to the next point and go back to work in trying to frustrate his younger opponent.
This just feel like a good spot to put trust in the veteran to win a set — and I’m also taking a chance on him winning the match.
Bet: Goffin +1.5 Sets (-127 – 1.5 units) & Goffin ML (+220 – 0.5 units)
Adrian Mannarino vs. Francisco Cerundolo
In Beijing, Cerundolo lost to Learner Tien in the Round of 32. The American’s style of play wore on the Argentinean, as Tien makes a lot of balls, he redirects pace well, and he never makes mistakes. Meanwhile, Cerundolo has big weapons, but he can occasionally beat himself by going for too much. He also gets impatient in longer rallies, leading to big blasts at the wrong times.
Cerundolo will now be playing a very similar player, as Mannarino is another lefty that likes to counter-punch — or downright push. He should be able to similarly frustrate Cerundolo, and he’s also playing some fantastic tennis. Since the start of Wimbledon qualifying, Mannarino is 23-8 in his 31 matches. His serve has been a big weapon for him, as his hold percentage is up at 80.1% after a slow start to the year in that category. And he’s always a tough returner.
I was able to grab this at +110 and posted it to the VSiN picks page immediately. But I would have played Mannarino at anything up to -120. This also looks like the sharper side in looking at the VSiN betting splits. Cerundolo has taken half the tickets at DraftKings Sportsbook, but Mannarino has received a very significant portion of the handle.
Bet: Mannarino ML (+110)
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Learner Tien
Tien is coming off a run to the finals last week. He earned wins over Cerundolo, Flavio Cobolli, Lorenzo Musetti, and Daniil Medvedev before falling to Jannik Sinner with the championship on the line. Tien was fantastic throughout, showcasing his usual steadiness and elite rally tolerance. However, it’s tough to go that deep in a tournament and then have to start fresh at another. The very best players in the world do it somewhat easily, but not the other guys.
With that in mind, this is really more of a fade on Tien than anything else. But Kecmanovic is a tough opponent for him. The Serbian is going to be comfortable playing the kinds of long rallies Tien enjoys, and he can actually rush the American quite a bit. Kecmanovic takes balls early and that should be pretty effective in these conditions.
Bet: Kecmanovic ML (-118)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
