The 2026 BNP Paribas Open is in full swing at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, and Thursday, March 12 brings another loaded slate of ATP and WTA action from Tennis Paradise. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks for Indian Wells, digging into matchup tactics, court conditions, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 BNP Paribas Open best bets are built to help you profit all the way through the men’s final on Sunday, March 15. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
BNP Paribas Open best bets for Thursday, March 12
Arthur Fils vs. Alexander Zverev
Fils is really starting to look like his former self. Just a few weeks ago, the Frenchman returned from a lengthy injury layoff, and we have seen rapid improvements since his first few matches back. Fils actually posted a Performance Rating of 8.50 at TennisViz in his win over Felix Auger-Aliassime last match. For reference, in non-Slams in 2025, Fils’ season-long Performance Rating was 7.90. Also, a Performance Rating of 8.50 would be the fourth-highest mark on the ATP Tour over the last 52 weeks — behind Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz. It’s just clear that Fils’ is looking like a top-10 player again. The only real concern with him is fitness. Can he continue to play at a high level this deep in a tournament? We’ll see. But I’m banking on him to do so.
I just don’t think there’s much that Zverev can do to just flick Fils to the side. The Frenchman has improved his returning significantly, and that was one of his few weaknesses early in his career. He was awesome as a returner against Auger-Aliassime last match, digging in to get as many balls back as possible. And he wasn’t just getting them back, he was putting them deep in the court and avoiding plus-one balls. That’s a good sign heading into a matchup with Zverev, as he’ll need to be similarly on point as a returner. The conditions should help Fils quite a bit, but Zverev’s lack of precision as a server will also do the Frenchman some favors. Zverev has a booming first serve, and he does make them at a high clip. However, he doesn’t exactly worry about serving to spots. That gives opponents chances. Zverev is also a little disappointing when it comes to his second serve, so Fils could take advantage there.
I also like Fils to do very well from the back of the court here. He played a very smart match against Auger-Aliassime, hitting 63% of his baseline shots to the Canadian’s shaky backhand. It’s clear that he has a good feel for scouting reports — and perhaps hiring Goran Ivanisevic helps there — and I imagine he’ll be similarly diligent when it comes to targeting Zverev’s forehand. Fils is also a much more aggressive player than Zverev, and I feel fortune favors the bold later in big tournaments.
This just should be a very tight match, so I’m not sure why Fils is such a heavy underdog. These two have split wins in their last four matches, and Fils won their only previous outdoor hard-court match. That win came at last year’s Miami Open, which is played on the exact same surface that they’re using in Indian Wells. That said, I’m taking my shot with the 21-year-old. I still don’t trust Zverev in big matches.
Bet: Fils ML (+160)
Victoria Mboko vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka is a freaking force on hard courts, so it’s always a little scary going against her. However, it’s hard not to like the idea of taking Mboko to win a set at plus-money odds. The Canadian hasn’t dropped a set at this tournament, and her most recent wins were insanely impressive. Mboko beat Anna Kalinskaya 6-4, 6-1 in the Round of 32, then she followed that up with a 6-4, 6-1 win over Amanda Anisimova. She’s just thriving in these conditions, making her look somewhat live to beat Sabalenka.
Mboko just has a lot of power, so she’s going to be able to give Sabalenka a taste of her own medicine. And we have seen Sabalenka struggle with players that can match her aggressiveness. Mboko also moves very well, she has a good serve, and she’s filled with self-belief. She won’t be intimidated by being across the net from a world No. 1.
Mboko also played Sabalenka tough in their first ever meeting, as the Belarusian won 6-1, 7-6 (1) at the Australian Open. That match happened to be played in Sabalenka’s ideal conditions, and I think the slower speeds in Indian Wells will even things up a little.
Bet: Mboko +1.5 Sets (+105 – 1.5 units) & Mboko ML (+310 – 0.25 units)
