The 2026 Miami Open is in full swing at Hard Rock Stadium, and Monday, March 23 brings another loaded slate of ATP and WTA action from South Florida. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks for Miami, digging into matchup tactics, court conditions, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 Miami Open best bets are built to help you profit. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Jakub Mensik
Tiafoe tends to play his best tennis in American hard-court events, but that usually comes in the run up to the US Open. He actually hasn’t been beyond the quarterfinals in South Beach, and he has been bounced before that stage in five straight Miami Opens. Meanwhile, Mensik is the defending champion here, having made a dream run in 2025 — and one that ended with a win over Novak Djokovic. Well, with these two having very different histories here, it’s hard not to immediately see value in Mensik as a small favorite.
Mensik’s game is just dangerous in these conditions. He’s one of the best servers on the planet, so that goes a long way in these faster conditions. He’s also long enough to get a good amount of returns in play, and his consistent baseline style translates to all surfaces.
Mensik also owns a big win over Tiafoe already, beating him 6-1, 6-4 in a lopsided match in Davis Cup qualifying last year. That match also happened to take place in Florida, and it was a very pro-Tiafoe environment. The American will have the crowd here, but it won’t be anything like that was.
Bet: Mensik ML (-152)
Sorana Cirstea vs. Coco Gauff
Gauff’s double-fault percentage was at least 10.3% in the seven matches she played before taking on Alycia Parks on Saturday. The world No. 4 was able to get it down to 9.0% against Parks, and the second and third sets were much, much better for her. After dropping the opener, she ended up pulling out a 3-6, 6-0, 6-1 win. However, Gauff has really struggled to beat solid players recently. In her last 10 matches, she has two losses to Elina Svitolina, a loss to Elisabetta Cocciaretto, a lopsided loss to Alexandra Eala, and several hard-fought wins in matches that wouldn’t normally be close. That said, her form is a bit of a mess, making Cirstea an interesting play on Monday.
Cirstea is retiring at the end of this season, but she’s playing the best tennis of her career. She’s 15-4 since the start of 2026, which is good for a career-high winning percentage of 78.9%. Cirstea is also on fire at this tournament, beating Shuai Zhang, Linda Noskova, and Elise Mertens on her way to this match in the Round of 16.
Cirstea is a big ball-striker, plays fearless tennis from the baseline, and she’s really able to control points with her power. Well, if she’s able to turn in a decent day as a server, there’s no reason she can’t keep this match tight. Also, if she’s able to play a lot of balls to the Gauff forehand, that’ll also help her chances.
Bet: Cirstea +1.5 Sets (-151 – 1.5 units) & Cirstea ML (+175 – 0.5 units)
