The 2026 Miami Open is in full swing at Hard Rock Stadium, and Saturday, March 21 brings another loaded slate of ATP and WTA action from South Florida. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks for Miami, digging into matchup tactics, court conditions, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 Miami Open best bets are built to help you profit. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Paula Badosa vs. Iva Jovic
Badosa is much, much better than her current ranking (No. 100) suggests, but she has been dealing with injuries for quite some time now. Badosa is also playing some decent tennis recently, having picked up three wins in the 125 in Austin earlier in the month. She then handled her business against Aliksandra Sasnovich in a 7-5, 6-3 win in her first match here. The issue is that Jovic is a fantastic player. She has very few holes in her game, she’s mentally tough, and she demands a lot out of her opponents physically. That could end up doing Badosa in here.
Badosa is a gifted player but I’m not sure she’ll be able to handle Jovic’s ability to stay solid. Similarly sturdy baseliners have given the Spaniard problems this year, and this really shouldn’t be any different.
It’s also just hard to discount what we’ve seen from the two in 2026. While Badosa is just 4-6 at the WTA level, Jovic is 14-6 and was a runner-up at a hard-court event in Hobart to start the season. Winning consistently matters when things get tight. Jovic has been able to get herself across the finish line more often than Badosa.
Bet: Jovic ML (-125)
NOTE: I wrote this up on Thursday, but the match was moved to Saturday. You’ll have to deal with slightly worse odds with Jovic now, but I still think she’s worth playing.
Alex Michelsen vs. Cameron Norrie
Michelsen should be a very tough matchup for Norrie in quicker conditions. Norrie is normally one of my favorite players to back, as I love the way he competes. If you have your hard-earned money on him, you at least feel good knowing how much he cares about each match. However, Michelsen is a better server than Norrie. In looking at TennisViz’s non-Slam numbers over the last 52 weeks, he has a 7.8 Serve Quality; Norrie’s is just 7.6. TennisViz’s numbers also show that Michelsen has been the more effective returner, and the baseline game should be very interesting. Norrie’s big, loopy lefty forehand is normally problematic when going into a righty’s backhand, but Michelsen has an elite two-hander. He should be able to hold up well when Norrie goes cross-court. That said, if Michelsen is hitting his forehand well, this is a match he should win comfortably.
Michelsen also happened to beat Norrie 7-6 (3), 7-5 in Delray Beach about a month ago, and those conditions were a little better for the Brit. With these courts favoring power, I’d expect Michelsen to put another one in the win column.
Bet: Michelsen ML (-150 – 1.5 units)
