The 2026 Miami Open is in full swing at Hard Rock Stadium, and Thursday, March 26 brings another loaded slate of ATP and WTA action from South Florida. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks for Miami, digging into matchup tactics, court conditions, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 Miami Open best bets are built to help you profit. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Karolina Muchova vs. Coco Gauff
It’s always pretty tempting to take Gauff at such favorable odds, but I like Muchova’s chances of reversing this lopsided series. Gauff is 5-0 against Muchova in her career, and their meeting at the 2026 Australian Open marked the first time in which the Czech was able to win a set off the American. However, getting caught up in head-to-head records can be a big mistake in tennis, and that’s especially true when looking at the difference in form heading into this match.
Gauff continues to gut out victories, which is something I always try to praise her for. The American is still having some major service issues. Also, while her forehand is looking much better lately, it does tend to come and go. That said, she’s really relying heavily on her athleticism, court coverage, and world-class backhand. Still, Gauff continues to find herself deep in tournaments.
This is, however, a match in which Gauff will need to have everything working. While she has gritted out wins over Muchova before, the Czech has arguably looked like the best player in South Beach thus far. After a hard-fought win over Camila Osorio in the opening round, Muchova has earned straight-set wins over Katie Boulter, Alexandra Eala, and Victoria Mboko. That last one was especially impressive, as Mboko played quite well. But Muchova’s accuracy on serve was something special, she was on point with her ball-striking, and her play at the net was superb.
If Muchova plays the way she did against Mboko, she really should be able to find a way to win this match. I have actually been so impressed with her that I thought hard about going bigger on this play, but I ultimately decided to keep it somewhat light. I don’t normally fear head-to-head records, but Muchova will have a mental hurdle to clear here.
Bet: Muchova ML (-110)
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Alexander Zverev
This matchup is super interesting. Not only has Cerundolo historically played some of his best tennis in South Beach, but he has also had quite a bit of success against Zverev in his career. The Argentine won the first three meetings between the two, but Zverev has since leveled things up at three victories apiece. However, one of the wins came with Cerundolo needing to retire in Canada last year, so the Argentine has still won three of the five matches that they’ve completed. All in all, he should head into this match with some serious confidence.
Cerundolo also happens to have one of the best forehands on the ATP Tour, which is significant in a matchup like this. Zverev has been hitting his forehand with more conviction recently, but he’s still a player that can be broken down on that wing. Cerundolo will look to do that in these quicker conditions.
Cerundolo also serves quite well in Miami, so he should at least be able to force some late-set pressure situations. So, at these prices, I’m willing to take a chance on him coming through in them.
Bet: Cerundolo +1.5 Sets (-125 – 1.5 units) & Cerundolo ML (+245 – 0.5 units)
Elena Rybakina vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka got her Australian Open revenge on Rybakina at Indian Wells a couple of weeks ago. Will Rybakina get her back? I think she will. Let’s not forget that Rybakina had a championship point in the desert, so she was pretty damn close to securing a third consecutive win against the Belarusian. And honestly, it just feels like Rybakina is the best player in tennis — at least dating back to the WTA Finals.
Rybakina is the best server in the sport, even if she does trail Sabalenka when looking at hold percentage in 2026. The Kazakhstani is also a magnificent ball-striker, she continues to look better and better as a mover, and her returning has been phenomenal this season.
These conditions should also add to Rybakina’s advantage over Sabalenka, which is her ability to rush her. Sabalenka has as much power as anyone, but she likes having a little time on the ball. Rybakina doesn’t give her any. She blasts her shots from both wings, sometimes even going right up the middle because she knows she can get under Sabalenka’s skin. Well, I don’t see that changing here.
I also thought we saw some real maturation from Rybakina in her three-set win over Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals. After getting blitzed in the opening set, we saw Rybakina make some mid-match adjustments, keep cool in high-pressure moments, and calmly find a way to win the third. She just continues to make strides in every facet of the game, and I’m not sure she should be available at plus-money odds against anyone on a court like this.
Bet: Rybakina ML (+120)
