The 2026 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters is underway at the Monte-Carlo Country Club, and the clay-court action really heats up on the French Riviera. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks for Monte-Carlo, digging into matchup tactics, surface tendencies, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 Monte-Carlo Masters best bets are built to help you profit. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays for Thursday, April 9 below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Casper Ruud vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Auger-Aliassime has won three straight matches against Ruud, with two of them coming on outdoor clay. However, I’m still finding it hard to lay off the Norwegian here. Ruud is 160-57 on the dirt in his career, winning a remarkable 73.7% of his matches. Meanwhile, Auger-Aliassime is just 50-44 on clay, which is good for only 53.2%. Ruud’s 7.98 clay-court Performance Rating at TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations over the last 52 weeks also happens to be a good deal higher than Auger-Aliassime’s 7.67 rating.
There’s just a lot when looking at overall clay-court history and recent clay-court performance that suggests ignoring the head-to-head is the way to go here.
I’d also argue that Monte-Carlo offers some of the purist clay-court conditions. These matches are slow, physical, and ugly, which should benefit Ruud a bit more. Auger-Aliassime wants to serve up unreturnables and blast winners from the baseline, but all of that will be difficult in Monaco. Well, Ruud is far more likely to be the player that takes advantage of the conditions and wins the point-construction battle.
Bet: Ruud ML (-148 – 1.5 units)
Matteo Berrettini vs. Joao Fonseca
Zizou Bergs vs. Alexander Zverev
I think there’s a real chance Berrettini beats Fonseca on Thursday, but I’m taking him to win a set instead. To get a better price on that safer pick, I’m pairing the Italian with a moneyline play on Zverev.
With Berrettini, it’s just clear he’s regaining his confidence in Monte-Carlo. These courts have always suited his game, but he’s through to the third round without having lost a game. Sure, he only need to play four of them against Roberto Bautista Agut before the Spaniard retired, but following that up with a 6-0, 6-0 win over Daniil Medvedev was tremendous. Berrettini’s Performance Rating through two matches is now 8.66, which is extremely high. And overall, I do think his game can trouble Fonseca. For starters, Berrettini’s service games are a little more straightforward. Fonseca will end up being a fantastic server, but he does occasionally sleepwalk through service games and give his opponents chances to break. On these courts, Berrettini can cash in on those chances. Also, from the back of the court, Berrettini is one of the few players in tennis with a forehand as big as Fonseca’s.
In the other match, I’m just not sure Bergs is solid enough to consistently hit through Zverev’s elite clay-court defense. Bergs is a good player that can trouble anyone when he’s on his game, but he is also a little erratic. Zverev will bring the worst out of him from the baseline, while also holding a lot easier.
PARLAY: Berrettini +1.5 Sets & Zverev ML (-123)
