Tennis is a unique sport. Unlike with team sports, you’re mostly betting on individuals overcoming one another: mano a mano. That makes it a little easier to bet on tennis than other sports. However, in order to really succeed, you need more than just surface-level knowledge. Nothing in betting is as easy as it seems. But there’s all sorts of valuable information out there, so you can give yourself quite the edge by digging into historical trends, up-to-date tournament information, traditional statistics and advanced statistics. We do a lot of that for you at VSiN. I do a lot of tennis handicapping for the company, so my author page should regularly have tennis picks and predictions. I also have more picks on our Pro Picks page, and I do some tennis spots on our VSiN live programming. Gill Alexander also gives out daily tennis picks on one of our most popular shows, A Numbers Game (Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to 12:00 pm ET). So, if you’re into tennis and like betting on it, a VSiN subscription should be worth your while! But for anybody that just wants some tips to help them do it themselves, keep reading for some ways to sharpen your tennis betting ability.
Familiarize yourself with different betting options
Before laying down any bets, get familiar with the variety of markets available. These are some of the most popular ones:
- Moneyline: Pick who you think will come out on top.
- Total: Bet on the total number of games — or sets — played in the match.
- Spread: Take a player to cover a certain game or set handicap. One of my favorites is the set spread.
- Live Betting: Place bets in real-time as the match unfolds, taking advantage of momentum swings.
Look into the recent form for both players
A player’s recent performance can say a lot. Look at their latest matches — wins, losses and level of competition. But don’t treat all results the same. A close loss against a top-tier player isn’t something to ignore. Just like dominant wins over borderline professionals might not mean much. Dig as much as you can.
Tennis Abstract is one of the best resources there is for a tennis bettor. Search for a player in a match you’re looking to bet and you’ll find pretty much everything there is to know about how they’ve been performing lately.
Take advantage of all of the statistics you can find
Crunching numbers can really refine your betting strategy. Plenty of resources offer deep stats on player performance, serve percentages, break percentages and more. Digging into this data can help you spot value bets others might miss.
The previously mentioned Tennis Abstract has a ton of valuable numbers. If you ever read my work, you’ll notice I reference hold percentage, break percentage and other statistics regularly. You should also follow Tennis Insights on X. They constantly tweet out informative stats and graphics, and their information is actually utilized by the ATP Tour.
Know everything there is to know about each tournament
Each tournament has its quirks — format, weather conditions, altitude, indoor vs. outdoor settings — that can tilt the scales. For example, playing at high altitudes can speed up the ball, favoring players with powerful serves and big games from the baseline.
Tennis is also played on different surfaces, like hard courts, clay courts and grass courts. Each one can dramatically change how the match plays out. Some players shine on specific surfaces due to their playing styles. Rafael Nadal, a 22-time Grand Slam champion, won 14 of his majors on the red clay at Roland Garros. That’s a special type of dominance on one specific surface, and it’s one that Iga Swiatek is looking to replicate on the WTA Tour right now.
Knowing the ins and outs of each surface is crucial when betting on this sport. There are top-10 players that perform more like top-100 players when put on surfaces they don’t like. So, don’t get caught sleeping on one of the most important things there is when it comes to this.
Find out the physical and mental state of both players
Tennis is grueling both physically and mentally. Keep an eye on a player’s fitness, any recent injuries and their ability to stay cool under pressure.
If a player picked up an injury in a recent match, you might find a good opportunity to fade them later in the tournament — or even events played over the next couple of weeks. Scouring X for injury information can be your friend. You’ll find a lot of garbage on social media, but you can also find some very helpful nuggets.
The mental game is also a game-changer. If a player is struggling with anything, they could be vulnerable on the court. Also, players with supreme confidence and proven mental strength have clear edges in this sport. Novak Djokovic isn’t just the greatest tennis player of all time, but he’s also one the toughest athletes between the ears. If an important match is close, he’s going to find a way to win it.
Don’t blindly bet big names and keep your emotions out of it
While the top players often win, blindly betting favorites won’t always pay off. Upsets happen, especially in the early rounds of tournaments. Look for underdogs who have a real shot — especially when talking about spreads.
This is also when it’s important to keep surfaces and playing conditions in mind. Daniil Medvedev, one of the best players in tennis, is miserable on clay courts. Knowing things like that can help you identify upsets. Similarly, there are players that are barely top-100 performers that look borderline elite on certain surfaces.
Also, betting is all about logic, not feelings. Don’t let your favorite player or a hunch cloud your judgment. Make your decisions based on solid analysis and data, not personal bias.
Know the odds, how they’re moving and see how the public is betting
Odds reflect how the betting world views a match. If you notice sudden shifts in odds without obvious reasons, it could signal sharp betting or insider info. Keeping an eye on these changes can give you an edge. Fortunately, you came to the right place if you’re interested in that. Our VSiN tennis betting splits page shows you how everybody is betting at DraftKings Sportsbook. Personally, this is one of my favorite tools we have on the website.
Manage your bankroll
If you’re in this for the long haul, bankroll management is key. I often adjust my unit sizes based on confidence, going up to 2 units when I’m feeling very good about a play. However, flat wagering is a good strategy for beginners. That should prevent you from going down big, and then ultimately chasing losses.
While we talk about betting all the time on our network, and we’re constantly putting stories out here, this should be fun in the long run. Don’t lose more than you can afford to lose. There are ways to make good money on this long term, but it’s important to make sure you’re never putting yourself at risk of making a major mistake. And if you ever need help, you don’t have to look too far.
Conclusion
Winning when betting on tennis isn’t just about luck. It’s about doing your homework, managing your money wisely and understanding the sport inside and out. Stay informed, bet smart and enjoy the ride responsibly.
