Tennis best bets and predictions for Friday, August 1st:
This week, the ATP and WTA Tours are in Canada for the 2025 National Bank Open presented by Rogers. The men are stationed in Toronto for their Masters 1000 event, and the women are playing their 1000-level tournament in Montreal. Unfortunately, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic and Aryna Sabalenka are a few of the big names that opted to rest up for Cincinnati. However, these fields are still rather loaded, so we’re soaking in the action up north. Make sure you’re coming back to VSiN, where I’ll be posting daily write-ups on the action as often as I can. That continues with the action on Friday, August 1st.
Make sure you also check out the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. I occasionally post some extra picks there, including my picks for smaller tournaments and Challenger-level events. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 946-922-1 (+42.94 units)
Belinda Bencic vs. Karolina Muchova
It’s hard to make the case that Muchova is figuring things out, as she hasn’t won back-to-back matches since Indian Wells. However, Muchova did look a lot better in a 7-5, 7-5 win over Antonia Ruzic on Wednesday. The 28-year-old made 63.9% of her first serves, which was the highest number she has posted since March. She also looked more willing to step into her backhand and rip it with two hands, which is a significant development considering her early-season injuries caused her to primarily go to a one-armed slice.
Realistically, if Muchova is capable of opening up her full suite of weapons, I don’t see any reason not to back her as this big of a dog against Bencic. I’m a big fan of Bencic’s game, but her last two matches have been brutal. Before getting to Montreal, she lost 6-2, 6-0 in an absolute beatdown at the hands of Iga Swiatek in the Wimbledon semifinals. If you want to give her the benefit of the doubt by saying Swiatek won the tournament and was in great form, I”ll give you that. But Bencic was all over the place against Eugenie Bouchard in the Round of 64 here. That’s an opponent that is retiring from tennis and embracing a pickleball career.
I just feel that Muchova’s best level is right on par with Bencic’s, and I honestly think the Czech might be better. So, if she’s feeling like herself again, she can easily win this match.
Bet: Muchova ML (+138)
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils
This is another match in which I’m trusting that the better player has things figured out. Fils is coming off a pretty long injury layoff, as he suffered a stress fracture in his back at Roland Garros. However, he hardly looked rusty in a 6-3, 6-4 win over Pablo Carreno Busta in the Round of 64 here, so I’m not sure I want to downgrade him too much heading into this meeting with Lehecka.
Heading into this tournament, the hard-court data I received from TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations strongly favored the Frenchman. Fils had a better Shot Quality score from the forehand (8.22 vs. 7.86) and backhand (7.24 vs. 7.08) wings. He was also a stronger returner (6.80 vs. 6.45). The only place Lehecka had Fils beat is on serve (8.21 vs. 8.02). Of course, a big serve can go a long way on this surface, and I can see Lehecka winning a set because of that weapon. But I trust Fils’ overall game and explosive shot-making to win out in the end.
Bet: Fils ML (+130)
Fabian Marozsan vs. Flavio Cobolli
Cobolli was able to emerge from an all-out war against Alexis Galarneau last match, as the Italian held on for a 6-4, 5-7, 6-4 victory. However, Galarneau is mostly a Challenger-level player, so I’m not sure Cobolli can take any positives from that result. Also, after some dynamite serving helped Cobolli make the Wimbledon quarterfinals a couple of weeks ago, the Italian has topped out at 54.9% when looking at first serves in, in his last three matches. Cobolli is normally a player with an explosive baseline game, but he leaves a lot to be desired as a server. Well, is he coming crashing back down to earth after a crazy run in London, or has he improved his serve significantly? If it’s the former, Marozsan will be a tough opponent for him. And I do suspect the run in Wimbledon was a little fluky.
Marozsan’s game isn’t perfect, but he does serve up bombs. He also has the ability to blast through good baseline defense with his power from the back of the court. And when opponents back up to counter that, the Hungarian then mixes in a world-class dropshot.
Marozsan is also playing some solid tennis this week, as he has earned straight-set wins over Hugo Dellien and Felix Auger Aliassime. The latter was super impressive, as Auger Aliassime is a talented player and was playing in front of his home fans. So, this just feels like a very tough opponent for Cobolli to be facing during a bit of a slide. And our VSiN betting splits page shows that sharp bettors agree. Cobolli opened at -175 at DraftKings Sportsbook, but his odds have plummeted despite the fact that more tickets are on him.
Bet: Marozsan ML (-105)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
