Tennis best bets and predictions for Monday, August 4th:
This week, the ATP and WTA Tours are in Canada for the 2025 National Bank Open presented by Rogers. The men are stationed in Toronto for their Masters 1000 event, and the women are playing their 1000-level tournament in Montreal. Unfortunately, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic and Aryna Sabalenka are a few of the big names that opted to rest up for Cincinnati. However, these fields are still rather loaded, so we’re soaking in the action up north. Make sure you’re coming back to VSiN, where I’ll be posting daily write-ups on the action as often as I can. That continues with the action on Monday, August 4th.
Make sure you also check out the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. I occasionally post some extra picks there, including my picks for smaller tournaments and Challenger-level events. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 951-928-1 (+42.54 units)
Marta Kostyuk vs. Elena Rybakina
Heading into this tournament, Kostyuk was on a six-match losing streak. However, things change quickly in tennis. All of a sudden, Kostyuk has some momentum, as the Ukrainian has earned wins over Marketa Vondrousova, Daria Kasatkina and McCartney Kessler. Now, it feels like we should be treating Kostyuk like the player she was last season — and towards the beginning of this season. And honestly, that player has a better shot at winning a set in this match than the implied 50.98% probability. She also has a better shot at winning the match than the odds suggest.
There’s obviously a shot Rybakina dominates this match with her first serve, as she hits absolute bombs and the conditions are favorable for her. However, Kostyuk has been one of the best returners on the WTA Tour two years in a row, as she had a break percentage of 40.7% in 2024 and it’s 39.9% in 2025. She should be able to put some pressure on Rybakina’s serve in this match. The question is, can she get through her own service games?
Kostyuk hasn’t been great as a server throughout the week, but Rybakina is a worse returner than the Ukrainian’s previous three opponents. That should play a role in her finding some ways to rack up holds. And the baseline play will significantly favor the 23-year-old. That’s why I’d be surprised if we don’t see Kostyuk force a decider at the very least.
Bet: Kostyuk +1.5 Sets (-104 – 1.5 units) & Kostyuk ML (+275 – 0.5 units)
Alexei Popyrin vs. Alexander Zverev
Victoria Mboko vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Popyrin is 0-3 in three meetings with Zverev, but only one of them has been played in the last five years. That was a 7-5, 6-3 win for Zverev at the Paris Olympics last year, but that was also on the German’s preferred surface. In quicker conditions, with Popyrin clearly comfortable as the defending champion at this event, I like the Australian to stay within four games. Popyrin really hasn’t had the greatest season, but sometimes players find a rhythm when they need to. That’s exactly what Popyrin has done this week, beating Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune in his last two matches to keep his title defense alive. Well, if Popyrin continues to play some good tennis, this should be a very close match. These are two big servers, so I’d expect breaks to be hard to come by. That said, even if Zverev finds a way to win in straight sets, I don’t see it being by more than a 7-6, 6-3 scoreline. That’s why I like using Popyrin on an alternate spread as a way to get a better price on Mboko.
As far as Mboko goes, I just can’t see her losing to Bouzas Maneiro after that win over Coco Gauff. Obviously, this is a bit of a letdown spot. However, Mboko has a good head on her shoulders, she’s the more talented player by a wide margin and Bouzas Maneiro’s form has left a lot to be desired. Sometimes it’s that simple.
PARLAY: Popyrin Alt +4.5 Games & Mboko ML (-130)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
