Tennis best bets and predictions for Thursday, July 24th:
We’re officially on the road to the 2025 US Open. Over the next couple of weeks, some of the top players in the world will be competing in some massive hard-court tournaments. This week, I’m focusing on the action in Washington DC, where the men and women are playing in a 500-level event: the Mubadala Citi DC Open. Keep reading for my tennis best bets for Thursday, July 24th, but make sure you also check out the Pro Picks page. That’s where you’ll find my picks for some of the smaller events — including the random clay-court tournaments.
I do occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 916-878-1 (+60.36 units)
Yibing Wu vs. Daniil Medvedev
It’s exciting to see Wu playing some good tennis again. While the 25-year-old maxed out at No. 54 in the rankings, he looked like he was ticketed for a spot in the Top 25 before injuries completely derailed his career. Now, the Chinese star appears to be getting healthy, as he has had some success at the Challenger level and is starting to win some tour-level matches. This week alone, Wu has earned wins over Corentin Moutet, Gael Monfils and Alexei Popyrin. Those are three players that have had plenty of success, making it easy to be optimistic about where the 25-year-old’s game is right now.
In this specific matchup, my concern for Wu is the serve. In 2023, when Wu was at his best, his hold percentage was just 75.1%. And last match, against Popyrin, he gave the Australian a bunch of chances to break. But Wu ended up saving eight of the 10 break points he faced in the match, and that ultimately allowed him to find a way through. I’m not sure I see that happening against Medvedev.
While Medvedev’s return game isn’t quite what it once was, he still has a break percentage of 25.8% this season. That number would probably be higher if not for some lopsided matches against elite servers. But I like the Russian to put a lot of pressure on the Wu serve.
I also think Medvedev’s baseline game will give Wu some problems. Wu can blast some shots from the baseline, but he can also be wild in looking to do so. Those are the exact types of players that Medvedev has success against. His defense isn’t as impenetrable as it once was, but it has been good this year — and his steal scores reflect that.
Ultimately, I just see Medvedev winning this match in somewhat straightforward fashion. And even if he drops a set, I can see him winning one by a wide enough margin that he can still cover a 3.5-game spread in a three-set victory.
Bet: Medvedev -3.5 Games (-128)
Gabriel Diallo vs. Ben Shelton
There’s a good chance Diallo and Shelton go to a decider. There hasn’t been much that has separated these two recently. Since the start of 2025, Shelton’s 61.5% winning percentage is a little stronger than Diallo’s 59.4%. However, Diallo is 13-6 in his last 19 matches, and he has come into his own a bit. The American is still a little better overall, as his movement along the baseline is a lot better. But Diallo won’t look like he doesn’t belong, and the serves will be the star of the show here.
This season, Diallo has a hold percentage of 85.4% and a break percentage of only 18.5%. Meanwhile, Shelton has a hold percentage of 86.8% and a break percentage of just 15.9%. These are just two players that hold regularly, and they don’t really put a lot of pressure on opponents as returners.
Considering all of that, I think we’ll see both players get on the board with a set, and it’s likely they’ll do so in a tiebreaker — or by a score of 7-5. That makes the Over an enticing play, especially considering it’s very possible that this will hit even in a straight-set win for one of them. Let’s not forget that these are server-friendly conditions.
Bet: Over 23.5 Games (-110)
Daniel Evans vs. Corentin Moutet
Moutet is a very good player, but he’s better on natural surfaces. That’s where his variety — and overall wizardry — really troubles opponents. There’s a reason Moutet is just 36-46 on hard courts in his career, and he’s also just 8-11 on the surface over the last 52 weeks. With that in mind, I’m a little surprised he’s such a heavy favorite against Evans, who won this tournament in 2023 and has already earned wins over Zizou Bergs and Alex Michelsen this week.
I understand Evans’ slice backhand might not be as effective going low cross court against a shorter player, as he might find Moutet’s sweet zones on the lefty’s forehand wing. But these two have met twice at the ATP level, with Evans taking a set on both occasions. Also, while Moutet did win both matches, the Frenchman’s win over Evans at the 2020 US Open was a 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 (5), 7-6 (1) nail-biter.
This just feels like a 50-50 matchup on a surface like this, but I’d give a slight nod to Evans considering the success he’s had at this venue. At the very least, I expect the Brit to win a set.
Bet: Evans +1.5 Sets (-143 – 1.5 units) & Evans ML (+180 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
