Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart tennis best bets for April 18th
Between the ATP and WTA Tours, we have some massive 500-level events to watch this week. I’m going to continue churning out tennis best bets from Sunday to Thursday (my plays for most semifinals and finals will be on the picks page, though I will make exceptions for massive weekend matchups), so make sure you’re checking the website for coverage on 500-level events — like Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription! It’s only $59 to get access to everything until August 1st!
With all of that in mind, check out my Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart best bets for Friday, April 18th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Luciano Darderi vs. Ben Shelton – Munich
I’m a little higher than most when it comes to valuing Shelton as a clay-court player, but this is a really tough matchup for the American. Shelton’s big serve is still valuable with Munich being a tournament played at altitude, but he still has some growing to do when it comes to clay-court movement and point construction. Of course, that didn’t stop him from beating Borna Gojo or Botic van de Zandschulp, but this is a step up in competition.
Darderi is coming off a title run in Marrakech, where he beat Tallon Griekspoor in straight sets in the final. The Italian had also just lost in the final of a Challenger in Naples. That said, Darderi is now 11-2 on clay over the last three weeks, and he’s 30-15 at the ATP level in his career. This is a player that thrives on this surface and understands everything it takes to give himself slight advantages. That should be a little hard for Shelton to overcome, especially with Darderi being 8-5 against lefties in his ATP career.
Pick: Darderi ML (-118 – 1.5 units)
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Alexander Zverev – Munich
Griekspoor beat Zverev in a tight three-set match at Indian Wells, snapping a five-match losing streak against the German. However, that streak definitely felt like it was bound to break sooner rather than later. In the five matches Zverev beat Griekspoor in, six of the 14 sets they played went to tiebreakers. Also, two of the five matches went the distance. These two have always played very close matches, but Griekspoor was struggling to find ways to get over the hump. Well, now that he did get in the winner’s circle, I anticipate this being a back-and-forth matchup moving forward.
These are just two players that can really serve, so it’s always likely they’ll play long, competitive sets against one another. And I don’t see that changing just because Zverev is playing at home. Sure, the change in scenery is good for Zverev, as fans are normally rooting against him. But does playing at home outweigh the fact that Zverev hasn’t played high-level tennis since January? I don’t think so.
I do think that playing on clay means Zverev is likely to find a way through, but I don’t agree with the odds being set the way they are. Griekspoor won two sets off Zverev at Roland Garros last year, and those conditions were much more favorable for the German. So, I’m taking a shot on Griekspoor to make Zverev sweat here, and I’m sprinkling the moneyline on principle alone.
Pick: Griekspoor +1.5 Sets (+100 – 1.5 units) & Griekspoor ML (+300 – 0.5 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
