Dubai, Doha, Rio de Janeiro tennis best bets for February 21st
This week, the top women in the world are in Dubai for the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. This is the second 1000-level WTA event of the season, and I’ll be writing up tennis best bets for the remainder of the tournament. Meanwhile, the men are scattered all over the globe, as there are 500-level events in Doha and Rio de Janeiro. I’ll also be writing up best bets for those, so you’ll find a lot of my plays in these daily predictions stories. That said, keep reading for my best bets for Friday, February 21st, and check out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorite picks below, and I occasionally add some picks throughout the day. Schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport, and I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Mirra Andreeva vs. Elena Rybakina – Dubai
Rybakina’s ability to pick up easy points with her serve is what makes her one of the best players in the world. Ultimately, her precision with the ball on her racquet — along with a little more steadiness than her opponent — is what made the difference in a tight second set against Sofia Kenin on Thursday. The problem is that Andreeva isn’t Kenin. The 17-year-old is a top-10 returner in the world, so she’s going to consistently get Rybakina’s serves back in play. Once she does, the longer rallies should favor her significantly. While Rybakina isn’t a stiff along the baseline, it’s hard to imagine her overpowering Andreeva the way Aryna Sabalenka does. She just doesn’t have that in her. And honestly, there’s a good chance Andreeva’s backhand will be the biggest weapon on the court in this one.
Andreeva has also added some strength over the last two years, allowing her to find another gear with her serve and forehand. There’s a reason she was able to beat Iga Swiatek 6-3, 6-3 on Thursday.
If Andreeva can just do a decent job of getting through service games, this match really should go her way. And Andreeva is going to feel good about the matchup, as she beat Rybakina 6-2 in a one-set exhibition at the World Tennis League in December. She also took a set off her two years ago, when she was nowhere near the player she is today.
This is also starting to feel like it could be Andreeva’s big breakthrough result. The teenager has made it deep in majors already, but she is looking to lift her first big trophy. I think there’s a decent shot we’ll see her do it in this 1000-level event.
Bet: Andreeva ML (+100 – 2 units)
Clara Tauson vs. Karolina Muchova – Dubai
Muchova is a remarkable player to watch, as she has a Federer-like beauty to her game and has more variety than anybody on the WTA Tour. It does, however, feel like Tauson is in better form coming into this one. Tauson’s 14-3 record to start the 2025 season is just incredibly impressive, and the record doesn’t even do it justice. Tauson has picked up wins over Madison Keys, Linda Noskova (twice) and Aryna Sabalenka, and she nearly beat the Belarusian in their other battle at the Australian Open.
When Tauson is clicking, she actually has the ability to punish opponents the same way Sabalenka and Keys do. She has a big, powerful serve, and she rips everything from the baseline. So, when she’s not spraying unforced errors, she can really overwhelm opponents. And considering she has been doing that all year long, it’s hard to turn down plus-money odds on her — even against Muchova.
While Muchova has more overall game than Tauson, I just wouldn’t be surprised if the Dane pushes her around and makes it hard on her to construct points the way she wants. We have seen players do it to Muchova before, and it happened as recently as the Australian Open. Naomi Osaka completely threw her off by just pounding the ball all over the court.
Bet: Tauson ML (+125)
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Andrey Rublev – Doha
It can be very stressful backing Rublev, as his on-court blowups lead to some serious ups and downs. And you only have to go back to Thursday for a match in which he completely fell apart, but he was able to find a way to beat Alex de Minaur in a third-set tiebreaker. Having said that, it’s still tough to find reasons to like Auger-Aliassime in this match.
This one really reminds me of the Jack Draper-Matteo Berrettini match from Thursday, as Auger-Aliassime’s serve should be neutralized a bit by the slow conditions in Doha. And Rublev’s serve, which can be a bit of a weakness, won’t be as big of a problem against a mediocre returner like Auger-Aliassime. The Russian also happens to be the better baseliner between these two, and it isn’t all that close.
This has also been a one-sided rivalry in the past, as Rublev is 5-1 in the six ATP-level matches they have played. That includes a four-match winning streak, as well as three victories on slower hard courts. So, these conditions have favored Rublev against Auger-Aliassime in the past. And while Rublev has his mental demons, Auger-Aliassime will have some of his own. It’s tough overcoming a brutal head-to-head history.
Bet: Rublev ML (-135 – 2 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
