Dallas, Rotterdam, Abu Dhabi and Cluj-Napoca tennis best bets for February 3rd
The 2025 Australian Open is in the books, but tennis never stops. This week, the top ATP players in the world are competing in Rotterdam and Dallas, and the best WTA players are playing in Abu Dhabi and Cluj-Napoca. Rotterdam and Dallas are both 500-level events, so the men are going to be really locked in for those two tournaments. On the women’s side, Abu Dhabi is a 500 and Cluj-Napoca is a 250. I’ll be handicapping all of the events on both tours this week, and I’ll also be mixing in some Challenger-level plays. However, I’m only going to be writing up the 500-level events this season, so you’ll find my lower-level tournament plays on the Pro Picks page. That said, keep reading for my Dallas, Rotterdam and Abu Dhabi tennis best bets for Monday, February 3rd.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorite picks below, and I occasionally add some picks throughout the day. Schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport, and I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 125-112-1 (+2.16 units)
Caroline Garcia vs. Lulu Sun – Abu Dhabi
Sun made a run to the Wimbledon quarterfinals last year, and that two weeks in London really put her on the map. However, those big weeks at majors can inflate your status quite a bit. The reality is that Sun was just 11-9 in 2024, and she’s 0-4 to start the 2025 season. The lefty simply isn’t that good of a player, but she has a recognizable name. I believe that’s why she’s a little overvalued in the market. And I don’t love her chances against a player like Garcia.
Garcia had a down 2024 season, but she looked solid in a three-set loss against a red-hot Naomi Osaka in Melbourne. And overall, it’s hard not to like Garcia to win this match with her ability to hold. Garcia came into this season after three consecutive years of holding at 74.7% or better. And she held at 80.5% or better in two of those seasons. She’s just extremely sturdy with the ball on her racquet, and Sun’s serving is very inconsistent. Also, Garcia is historically better than Sun as a returner, giving her major edges in two extremely important parts of the game. Perhaps an argument can be made that Sun is a better baseliner, but even that would be a stretch. One of Sun’s big strengths is that she can overpower opponents from the back of the court, but Garcia has plenty of power herself.
Considering everything above, I’m alright with dealing with some juice on this play. As far as Elo rating goes, I believe -172 is a good value. Garcia has a hard-court Elo rating of 1763.5. Sun is down at 1670.0.
Bet: Garcia ML (-172)
Stan Wawrinka vs. Daniil Medvedev – Rotterdam
Taro Daniel vs. Frances Tiafoe – Dallas
I really like Tiafoe to win his match against Daniel, and I actually think the 27-year-old is in a good position to make a run in Dallas this week. However, it’s hard to stomach a -250 moneyline play. I also don’t love the idea of laying the games, as it’s not crazy to think that Tiafoe will get himself involved in a bit of a server’s duel here. I can even see him dropping a set. With that in mind, I’m parlaying Tiafoe to win with Wawrinka to cover an alternate spread of +6.5 against Medvedev.
We just saw Medvedev in miserable form in Melbourne, where he barely beat Kasidit Samrej in the opening round and then fell against Learner Tien in the second. Given the way Medvedev’s game tailed off in the second half of 2024, it wasn’t all that surprising. He and his wife also had another child recently, so it’s entirely possible he’s not as focused as he needs to be. Well, all of that makes it pretty easy to envision a scenario in which Wawrinka will avoid getting crushed here. Wawrinka isn’t what he once was, but he’s capable of raising his level and playing competitive matches. He looked quite good in a loss to Lorenzo Sonego at the Australian Open. Realistically, Medvedev will probably find a way through here, as Wawrinka isn’t as good of a returner as he needs to be to upset elite players. But I would be surprised if the three-time Grand Slam champion doesn’t win six or more games in a straight-set loss.
PARLAY: Wawrinka Alt +6.5 Games & Tiafoe ML (-140 – 1.5 units)
Tournament Futures
Ben Shelton To Win Dallas (+550) – I’m taking a shot on Shelton to win this event. I ultimately think Taylor Fritz will get the job done, but the top half of the draw is brutal. Fritz is joined by Tomas Machac, Tommy Paul, Reilly Opelka and Alex Michelsen in his half of the draw, and that’s going to be tough for him to navigate — especially considering how beatable he looked against Gael Monfils in Melbourne. That said, I’m not looking to play Fritz here, and I’m avoiding the top half of the draw entirely. Instead, I’m rolling with Shelton to emerge from the bottom half, where Tiafoe and Casper Ruud are the biggest threats. I strongly believe the southpaw is the most dangerous fast hard-court player of the three, especially after his run to the semifinals in Australia. Shelton’s serve is such a weapon on slick surfaces, and he’s getting much better at avoiding mistakes in big matches. I also like the way his backhand looks right now. That said, at +550 odds, I think it’s worth a flier on Shelton to raise the trophy at this 500-level event. It’d be a nice way for him to build on a great start to the year. And if it’s Shelton versus Fritz in the final, we can find a way to hedge this ticket.
Additional Plays
Casper Ruud ML (-154 – 1.5 units) vs. Marcos Giron [Dallas] – Match is on Tuesday, writeup coming tomorrow.
Tomas Machac ML (-154) vs. Kei Nishikori [Dallas] – Match is on Tuesday, writeup coming tomorrow.
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
