Bastad, Budapest, Gstaad, Hamburg, Newport, Palermo predictions and best bets for July 20th:
This is a bit of an awkward stretch on the tennis schedule, as Wimbledon just ended and players are now competing all over the world. There’s another grass-court event on the schedule for the men this week, with some players battling it out in Newport. Meanwhile, a bunch of the others are turning their attention to clay-court tennis in Bastad, Gstaad and Hamburg. For a lot of these athletes, competing on clay is a good way to prepare for the Olympic Games. On the WTA side of things, the women are in Budapest and Palermo. But things won’t be as confusing in a few weeks. Once the action in Paris is over, we’ll transition to the exciting part of the hard-court season. However, we’re still treating this week like any other by searching for some tennis best bets. In fact, it’s a great week to bet on tennis, as we have six ATP and WTA events to choose from. That said, make sure you keep reading for my tennis predictions for Saturday, July 20th.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorites below, but I usually have more tennis picks on the Pro Picks page. I also occasionally add some plays throughout the day, as schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport. I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 526-525 (+40.39 units)
Quentin Halys vs. Jan-Lennard Struff – Gstaad
Rafael Nadal vs. Duje Ajdukovic – Bastad
In a two-leg parlay for Saturday’s tennis action, I’m taking Struff to handle his business against Halys. These are two players that can absolutely blast serves, and breaks will be hard to come by here. I know this is a clay-court event, but it’s a tournament that is played at altitude. So, these are really good conditions for the server. But the difference here is that Struff breaks at 22.6% on clay over the last 52 weeks, while Halys is all the way down at 16.1%. I just don’t think the Frenchman is going to put any pressure on Struff’s serve, but I can see the German getting to Halys a bit. And even if he can’t, I think Struff’s better all-around game will give him an edge in tiebreakers.
For the second play in this parlay, I’m sticking with Nadal in Bastad. The Spaniard’s win over Mariano Navone was really ugly, but that was a tough clay-court opponent. Ajdukovic shouldn’t be able to do as much to frustrate Nadal. Ajdukovic’s backhand is definitely going to give Nadal some problems, but the Spaniard should be able to control this thing by peppering the 23-year-old’s forehand side. I also don’t think Ajdukovic is a good enough server to get by Nadal. The return game is somewhere Nadal really showed up against Navone, and he should do the same against Ajdukovic. And I don’t see Ajdukovic doing as much damage against Nadal’s serve. Navone is one of the best clay-court returners in the world. The only concern here is how Nadal’s body responds to a four-hour match. One day of rest is rough. However, he did say that he felt good after the match. He also knows the importance of getting a full week of matches in. He’s trying to find his rhythm before the Olympic Games.
PARLAY: Struff ML + Nadal ML (-136)
Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs. Anna Schmiedlova – Budapest
Schmiedlova has played some great tennis in this tournament, but she faces a tough opponent in the semifinals. Sasnovich has had an up-and-down 2024 season, but she has always been a solid clay-court performer. And she has had a lot of success in this particular matchup. These two have met one another seven times and Sasnovich has won six of the matches. That includes a meeting in Rome on May 8th, when Sasnovich earned a 6-2, 7-6 (6) win on the dirt. She’s now 4-0 in four career clay-court matches against Schmiedlova. And I really don’t see any reason not to back her to do it again — especially at these odds. It can be a mistake to look too much into head-to-head history, but it’s hard to ignore when it’s this lopsided. I also just think that Schmiedlova has been a little more aggressive than usual recently, and that has allowed her to win some tough matches in Budapest. But I imagine we’ll see her rack up some unforced errors if she continues to play that way. She’s generally a player that likes to find the court and make her opponents make the mistakes. I don’t think Sasnovich will do that.
Bet: Sasnovich ML (-110)
Arthur Fils vs. Sebastian Baez – Hamburg
I had Baez to get through his match against Luciano Darderi and I also had a play on Fils to beat Holger Rune (which is why checking out the Pro Picks page is a must). Now, these two will clash in what should be a fun match in Hamburg. Baez is the ultimate counter-puncher and is the definition of a clay-court grinder. Meanwhile, Fils relies on his power and overall athleticism to win matches. This should ultimately be a pretty close match, but I like the value in grabbing Baez at plus-money odds. I know that Fils’ game is pretty effective everywhere, but Baez has beaten players like this before. He will take Fils’ pace and simply re-direct it, and the Argentine’s ability to utilize topspin and move opponents around the courts is the difference for me. As I mentioned in yesterday’s story, Baez has more clay-court wins than anybody on the ATP Tour over the last 52 weeks.
Bet: Baez ML (+120)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
