Tennis best bets for Saturday, June 21st – Queen’s Club, Halle & Berlin
We’re in the short grass-court portion of the 2025 tennis season. That means we’re not too far away from Wimbledon, which is one of the best events in sports. However, we do have three 500-level events on the calendar for this week, so it’s time to lock in now. Some of the top players on the ATP Tour are at Queen’s Club for the HSBC Championships, and others are in Halle for the Terra Wortmann Open. Meanwhile, most of the women are in Germany for the Berlin Tennis Open. With all of that out of the way, let’s get into some tennis picks for Saturday, June 21st.
I’d also strongly suggest checking the Pro Picks page throughout the day. That’s where Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets. Gill does a tremendous job handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game, which is a staple of our live VSiN programming. Also, while I try to write up as many of my plays as possible, I do occasionally add things to that page throughout the day. That’s also where I post plays for smaller ATP and WTA events, and my Challenger-level plays live exclusively on that page.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev – Halle
Alexander Bublik vs. Karen Khachanov – Halle
I don’t have much on the Saturday card, but there’s a two-leg parlay I like and I wanted to write it up because I won’t be writing anything on Saturday. That parlay calls for Medvedev to win a set against Zverev, then I’ll need Khachanov to win one against a red-hot Bublik.
I thought Alex Michelsen was going to have a shot against Medvedev, but the Russian played extremely well in that match. And perhaps most importantly, Medvedev served well in that match. The 29-year-old made 66% of his first serves, hit seven aces and didn’t face a single break point all match. His hold percentage is slowly beginning to creep up, and more progress there would go a long way towards Medvedev becoming feared again. Though it’s worth noting that Medvedev is already going to be back in the ATP’s Top 10, so he’s making some progress in rebuilding his game.
As far as this matchup goes, I just can’t get over the lopsided head-to-head history between these players. Medvedev is 12-7 against Zverev in 19 career meetings, but he is also 6-1 in the last seven matches. And what’s interesting about that is that Medvedev earned a five-set win over Zverev at the Australian Open last year, beating him in quicker conditions in a year in which the Russian struggled and the German thrived. It’s just hard for Zverev to beat a player like Medvedev, as the German isn’t all that aggressive or bold. He likes to push the ball and outlast opponents, but it’s difficult to do that against one of tennis’ all-time greatest baseline defenders. On top of that, Medvedev is an elite returner, so he isn’t going to let Zverev rack up easy holds. Considering all of that, I just don’t see Medvedev losing this one in straight sets.
With the other match, it’s hard to get on board with Bublik’s 61.5% implied probability of winning the match. Obviously, it’s impressive that he beat Jannik Sinner, and we know Bublik is a good grass-court player. But Khachanov has been a better player than Bublik for the entirety of his career, and he won 6-4, 6-4 in their lone head-to-head matchup (back in 2020). Khachanov is also 28-17 on grass in his career, giving him a higher winning percentage on this surface than any other. Perhaps none of that will amount to an outright win for Khachanov. But with his ability to serve and play big from the baseline, I think we’ll see him claim at least a set. The Bublik buzz might be getting a bit out of hand.
PARLAY: Medvedev +1.5 Sets & Khachanov +1.5 Sets (+120 – 1.5 units)
2025 Record: 777-763-1 (+17.70 units)
