Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart tennis best bets for April 17th
Between the ATP and WTA Tours, we have some massive 500-level events to watch this week. I’m going to continue churning out tennis best bets from Sunday to Thursday (my plays for most semifinals and finals will be on the picks page, though I will make exceptions for massive weekend matchups), so make sure you’re checking the website for coverage on 500-level events — like Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription! It’s only $59 to get access to everything until August 1st!
With all of that in mind, check out my Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart best bets for Thursday, April 17th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Jaume Munar vs. Karen Khachanov – Barcelona
Khachanov had the crowd in his corner in a win over Cameron Norrie last match, and he needed the extra adrenaline. That was a close match throughout, and having the support just might have made the difference in the end. But I don’t see Khachanov having too many fans pulling for him on Thursday. Munar is a Spaniard that came up in the Rafa Nadal Academy, so he really should have the entire crowd pulling for him in Barcelona. And in a match that I already view as a 50-50 call, that makes it hard not to like Munar as a pretty big underdog.
Khachanov is 69-51 on clay in his career, so he’s not some slouch on this surface. But he definitely would have an easier time beating Munar on grass or hard courts, where his edge in power would be hard for the Spaniard to overcome. But on the slow-bouncing clay in Barcelona, Munar should be able to neutralize Khachanov’s power with his ability to cover the court and re-direct pace. He’s also a fantastic returner, so he should put pressure on Khachanov’s serve. The Russian can occasionally put himself in bad situations with quick lapses in focus, so it shouldn’t surprise anybody if Munar has a lot of chances to break.
I also just like that Munar has a ton of variety. He can mix things up and see what’s working throughout the match. Problem-solving is a big part of the reason Munar has won 67 clay-court matches in his career. And I can see it being the small difference in this one.
Pick: Munar ML (+142)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Andrey Rublev – Barcelona
Rublev played pretty well in a 6-1, 6-3 win over Jesper De Jong in the Round of 32, but he’s still a player I’m looking to fade right now. I know there’s some momentum building for the Russian, as he just brought Marat Safin on as a full-time coach. That’s somebody Rublev has always admired, and that kind of situation could bring out the best in him. The problem is that I’m just not blown away by Rublev’s on-court ability anymore, and he’s facing an opponent that is very dangerous on clay. He’s also facing a Spaniard in Barcelona, which could make for a hostile environment. That’s dangerous in a Rublev match, as he has trouble managing his emotions.
Davidovich Fokina is also a tough matchup for Rublev, as the Spaniard has similar pop from the baseline. He also has some absurd athleticism, so he’s going to track down a lot of extra balls and just make Rublev think a little more about each and every swing. The only thing I really worry about with Davidovich Fokina is that he’s not a great server and he can be a little erratic from the baseline. But the same can be said about Rublev. So, give me the player in better form, playing in front of his people.
Pick: Davidovich Fokina ML (+106 – 1.5 units)
Fabian Marozsan vs. Ugo Humbert – Munich
I continue to be worried about the heavy wrapping Humbert has on his hand. I know he was able to beat Nicolas Jarry last match — and that was one in which I backed the Chilean — but that was an opponent that hasn’t done much of anything this season. Marozsan has won three of his last four matches, and he has a 9-9 record in tour-level matches since the start of 2025. He’s in much better form than Jarry ever was, and his game could be tricky for Humbert.
Not only does Marozsan have some serious power, but he also mixes things up extremely well. He’s not going to be shy about changing angles and the height of his shots to try and test Humbert’s backhand. After all, that hand is broken. Marozsan can also beat Humbert with some drop shots, which are absolutely lethal on clay.
If Humbert was fully healthy, this is one I’d lay off completely. But I just don’t see him consistently beating good players as long as his hand is injured. So, I’m willing to take several shots fading him — especially on a surface that he is just 14-31 on.
Pick: Marozsan ML (+105 – 1.5 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
