Dubai, Doha, Rio de Janeiro tennis best bets for February 20th
This week, the top women in the world are in Dubai for the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. This is the second 1000-level WTA event of the season, and I’ll be writing up tennis best bets for the remainder of the tournament. Meanwhile, the men are scattered all over the globe, as there are 500-level events in Doha and Rio de Janeiro. I’ll also be writing up best bets for those, so you’ll find a lot of my plays in these daily predictions stories. That said, keep reading for my best bets for Thursday, February 20th, and check out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorite picks below, and I occasionally add some picks throughout the day. Schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport, and I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Sofia Kenin vs. Elena Rybakina – Dubai
Kenin has been really kind to us this week. We had set spreads and moneyline sprinkles in her matches against Marta Kostyuk and Jasmine Paolini, and I really don’t see any reason not to try it again with Rybakina. Obviously, Rybakina is a level above both of those players, and a good argument can be made that she’s a top-five player on the WTA Tour. Her ranking backs it up. However, Rybakina is coming off a three-set war with Paula Badosa, and that match took nearly three hours to complete. There’s a decent chance the 2022 Wimbledon champion will be a little fatigued heading into this bout with Kenin, and Rybakina is a player that does have some conditioning issues. Meanwhile, Kenin needed only an hour to beat Paolini last match, with an injury to the Italian helping to speed things along. But either way, Kenin will have fresher legs when she gets out there for this match, and the American’s recent form suggests she’s capable of keeping this match tight.
I have been praising Kenin’s serving all week long, and she hasn’t let up in regards to her accuracy there. Kenin has made at least 70% of her first serves in five straight matches. If she does that again, I don’t see why she can’t put some real fear into Rybakina. Sure, Rybakina is one of the best servers on tour, but Kenin is going to feel good about how she matches up everywhere else. So, if she’s also breezing through her service games, she should give herself some chances to get in this match.
It’s also worth noting that Kenin has played Rybakina extremely tough in the past. While Rybakina is 2-0 against Kenin, three of their five sets have gone to tiebreakers. And Kenin is way more confident now than she was when they played in 2023, when Rybakina beat her in straight sets at Indian Wells.
Bet: Kenin +1.5 Sets (+136 – 1.5 units) & Kenin ML (+350 – 0.5 units)
NOTE: I got this Kenin set spread very early, but I would have played it at anything +100 or better.
Jiri Lehecka vs. Carlos Alcaraz – Doha
Alcaraz should be able to find a way through Lehecka. We have seen the Spaniard play some great tennis on slower hard courts. Alcaraz has been a monster at Indian Wells, and we just saw him win a title on the slow hard courts in Rotterdam. That said, it’s hard to imagine him losing outright to Lehecka. But I do like the idea of playing Alcaraz to go Over 12.5 games in this one. This is a play that can win even in a straight-set Alcaraz victory, and I really wouldn’t be surprised if it plays out exactly like that.
While Alcaraz will have a massive advantage from the baseline — and also happens to be a far better returner than Lehecka — the Czech is still one of the best servers on the planet. Over the last 52 weeks, only 11 players in tennis have a higher hold percentage than Lehecka’s 85.8%. And coaches all over the world have likely taken note of how Alcaraz can struggle to return serves from the forehand side. With all of that in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Alcaraz win a tiebreaker, or win a set 7-5. If he does, a straight-set win would mean 13 total games for the Spaniard.
This play also sets us up nicely in the event Alcaraz drops a set to Lehecka, which isn’t out of the question either. We just saw him drop a set to Luca Nardi, which is something I gave out at +400 odds on the picks page. The Spaniard hasn’t been in top form in quite some time.
Bet: Alcaraz Over 12.5 Games Won (-140)
Matteo Berrettini vs. Jack Draper – Doha
Berrettini has been great all week. The highly-talented Italian followed up an upset win over Novak Djokovic with a three-set victory over Tallon Griekspoor. Berrettini really is starting to look more and more like the guy that reached world No. 6 in 2022, and he should get himself back in the mix at the top of the sport eventually. He just needs some luck in the health department. The problem is that Berrettini is facing a player with legitimate top-level talent, and he’s doing so in conditions that seriously favor Draper.
While slow courts definitely help Berrettini avoid getting killed on his miserable backhand wing, they also give his opponents a better shot at returning his serve. Well, if Draper is the better returner in this match, the Brit is going to win it. Draper has a booming first serve himself, so I don’t have much faith in Berrettini doing a lot of damage as a returner. Draper also happens to have a little more game from the baseline, so longer rallies should favor the 23-year-old.
I also like that Draper is coming off back-to-back wins against big servers, as he earned a 6-2, 7-6 (4) win over Alexei Popyrin on Monday and followed it up with a 6-2, 6-1 win over Christopher O’Connell. Draper should be ready to try and block returns back in play, and he’ll let the rest of his game do the heavy lifting from there.
Bet: Draper ML (-129 – 2 units)
Alexandre Muller vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry – Rio de Janeiro
Jaime Faria vs. Jaume Munar – Rio de Janeiro
I don’t see anything that I’m desperate to play on the Rio card for Thursday, but I do like a parlay of Etcheverry to beat Muller and Munar to beat Faria. With Etcheverry, this is a big time fade on Muller after a massive win over Joao Fonseca. Muller played one of the best matches of his life, and he did so on a huge stage. Now, a bit of a letdown can be expected. Also, while Fonseca has all the firepower in the world, the teenager gifted Muller a ton of points in that match. Etcheverry isn’t going to do the same. Etcheverry is going to have a significant edge in weaponry here, and he’s not going to throw this thing away like Fonseca did. There shouldn’t be many nerves at all for the Argentine. And in the other match, Munar really shouldn’t lose to Faria. I know Faria played well in his last match, but he’s not even supposed to be in this draw. He’s a lucky loser and got a soft opening-round matchup. Munar will be a whole different challenge for him. The Spaniard has always been a great clay-court player, and he did serious offseason work to up his power as a server and baseliner. Now, he’s looking like the best version of himself.
PARLAY: Etcheverry ML & Munar ML (-122 – 1.5 units)
Note: Not only do I like Munar to win this match, but I also suggest going in on him to win the tournament. A potential final against Alexander Zverev is obviously daunting, but I’ll worry about it if it comes to that. I got this at 11-1 odds earlier in the day. If anything like that comes available again, you should pounce on it with a small play. With Lorenzo Musetti having pulled out, Munar has a great draw.
UPDATE: Munar is available again at 10-1 to win the tournament. I have 0.5 on him at 11-1. I would suggest 0.25 or 0.5 at 10-1.
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
