Acapulco, Dubai, Merida tennis best bets for February 27th

Between the ATP and WTA Tours, we have five tournaments to watch this week. I’m going to continue churning out tennis best bets from Sunday to Thursday (until some of the bigger tournaments arrive, my plays for most semifinals and finals will be on the picks page), so come back to the website for writeups on the 500-level events — like Acapulco, Dubai and Merida. The fields for Acapulco and Dubai are especially interesting, so I’m paying closer attention to those two. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.

We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!

 

With all of that in mind, check out my Acapulco, Dubai and Merida best bets for Thursday, February 27th.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

Luca Nardi vs. Quentin Halys – Dubai
Matteo Berrettini vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Dubai

Halys earned one of the biggest wins of his career in the Round of 32, beating Doha champion Andrey Rublev 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (5). Halys then followed that up with a 7-6 (5), 6-4 win over Roberto Bautista Agut. The Frenchman is just looking very comfortable in Dubai, where he also won two qualifying matches in straight sets. However, I do think he’s going to run into some problems with Nardi. While the quick conditions in Dubai definitely make it hard to beat a big server like Halys, the fast courts also happen to give Nardi a bump as a server. And when you combine that with the fact that Nardi is a little more reliable than Halys as a baseliner, it’s hard to see the Italian losing this match in straight sets. Nardi has been quite impressive himself lately. He pushed Carlos Alcaraz in a tight three-set loss in Doha last week, and he has earned wins over Marton Fucsovics and Zizou Bergs this week.

In the other match, I like Berrettini to beat Tsitsipas, but I’m not willing to take it at close to -170 odds. But overall, this is a match that should favor Berrettini quite a bit. These players are actually similar in that they have big serves, huge forehands and questionable backhands. However, Berrettini has the slight edge when it comes to the serve and forehand. The Italian is also a little smarter from the backhand wing, where he generally opts to slice instead of stepping up, ripping shots and missing. Also, Tsitsipas is coming off a physical three-set win over Karen Khachanov, and Berrettini had a straightforward win over Christopher O’Connell last round. So, Berrettini should have fresher legs. On top of that, while Tsitsipas has a big head-to-head edge over Berrettini, the Italian won their most recent match. That was a 7-6 (6), 7-5 victory in Gstaad last year. Berrettini has only gotten better since then. Tsitsipas has gotten worse.

PARLAY: Nardi +1.5 Sets & Berrettini ML (+118)

Petra Martic vs. Emma Navarro – Merida

Navarro hasn’t had to play a match at this tournament, as she’s the top-seeded player and got a bye. So, Navarro hasn’t had to deal with the conditions at this event, meaning she could be in for a bit of a surprise. Meanwhile, Martic won two qualifying matches in straight sets, and she then earned an easy 6-2, 6-3 win over Sloane Stephens in the first round. That said, Martic is going to be comfortable when she gets out on the court. Also, she has been playing some good tennis to start 2025, and that’s especially true when looking at her run to the quarterfinals in Linz in January.

I just think that a player like Martic, who is a former world No. 14, can frustrate Navarro with some clean ball-striking and calmness in big moments. For as good as Navarro is, she has been weirdly shaky to start the 2025 season. Her play was somewhat erratic at the Australian Open. She also won just one match across three matches in Doha and Dubai. Until she’s playing like herself again, it might make sense to find ways to back her opponents.

Bet: Martic +1.5 Sets (+109)

Additional Plays

I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.

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