Doha, Buenos Aires, Delray Beach, Marseille tennis best bets for February 11th
This week, the top women in the world are in Doha for the Qatar TotalEnergies Open. This is the first 1000-level WTA event of the season, and I’ll be writing up tennis best bets for this one all week. Meanwhile, the men are scattered all over the globe, as there are 250-level tournaments in Buenos Aires, Delray Beach and Marseille. However, I’m only going to be writing up the 500-level events this season, so you’ll find my men’s plays on the Pro Picks page this week. That said, keep reading for my Doha best bets for Tuesday, February 11th, and check out the picks page for all of my action for Buenos Aires, Delray Beach and Marseille.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorite picks below, and I occasionally add some picks throughout the day. Schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport, and I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Linda Noskova vs. Yulia Putintseva – Doha
I had Noskova to win a set as part of a two-leg parlay on Monday, and I noted that I expected her to win that match. The 20-year-old Czech is just so dangerous from the baseline, and that’s especially true when playing in conditions that give her the time she needs to track shots down and set her feet. Now, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Noskova doesn’t advance to the final 16 in Doha.
There’s no denying that Putintseva has accomplished more throughout her career, and she’s an unbelievably difficult player to beat. However, this is a match in which both players will likely struggle to hold serve, and it should be won along the baseline. That favors Noskova.
Putintseva might have a better set of wheels on her, allowing her to play better defense and avoid an outrageous winner count for her opponent. But Noskova can effortlessly hit through these slower conditions, and I believe the Czech has more weapons than Putintseva from the back of the court.
Putintseva did win 7-6 (3), 6-4 when these two met at the US Open last year, but I’m not putting much into that. Noskova is only getting better from here, as she’s an outrageous talent and is picking up more confidence. She’s trending up; Putintseva is trending down.
Bet: Noskova ML (-133)
Elina Svitolina vs. Jessica Pegula – Doha
I don’t love playing moneylines at -150 or worse, but sometimes it’s justifiable to do so. In this case, I’m backing Pegula at -159 — and I probably would have considered it up to -175. While Svitolina beat Pegula at the Olympics last year, that was a match that was played on clay. But Pegula has won four consecutive hard-court matches against Svitolina, so this has been a pretty one-sided matchup on this surface. Also, I’d say that the conditions in Doha aren’t all that different from the ones at Indian Wells, and Pegula beat Svitolina 6-1, 6-1 in the desert in 2021. Pegula is a much better player today than she was then.
Svitolina also just played a very sloppy match against Marketa Vondrousova. I had Vondrousova to win that one, but I came away unimpressed with both players. It really came down to who made fewer mistakes, and Svitolina won that in the end. I don’t see that same level being enough against Pegula, who is one of the steadiest players on the WTA Tour.
Bet: Pegula ML (-159)
Ons Jabeur vs. Qinwen Zheng – Doha
Zheng is 2-0 against Jabeur in her career, but we haven’t seen the 2024 Olympic gold medalist since the Australian Open. Zheng also happened to suffer a second-round loss in Melbourne, so it has been quite some time since we last saw her at a high level. Well, Jabeur is 9-4 to start the 2024 season. She’s also coming off a 6-2, 6-0 win over McCartney Kessler, so it really feels like we’re seeing the version of the Tunisian that is a three-time Grand Slam runner-up. And when Jabeur is at that level, she’s capable of beating anybody.
If Zheng stumbles at all in this match, Jabeur is going to make it a nightmare for her. I enjoy watching Zheng rip shots from the baseline. She’s as clean of a ball striker as there is in the women’s game. But she really only has one speed with her game, and that’s to win with power. So, the conditions in Doha could complicate things for her. It’s slow and windy at this event, which is why a little variety goes a long way here. Well, Jabeur has more variety than any player on the WTA Tour. She’s going to try everything she can to throw Zheng off, and I ultimately think it’ll work.
Jabeur’s peak Elo rating is also higher than Zheng’s, so we have never seen the 22-year-old play better tennis than the Tunisian. That said, if Jabeur is truly back to her old form, this is a great value play.
Bet: Jabeur ML (+130)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
