Tennis best bets for Wednesday, June 18th – Queen’s Club, Halle & Berlin
We’re in the short grass-court portion of the 2025 tennis season. That means we’re not too far away from Wimbledon, which is one of the best events in sports. However, we do have three 500-level events on the calendar for this week, so it’s time to lock in now. Some of the top players on the ATP Tour are at Queen’s Club for the HSBC Championships, and others are in Halle for the Terra Wortmann Open. Meanwhile, most of the women are in Germany for the Berlin Tennis Open. With all of that out of the way, let’s get into some tennis picks for Wednesday, June 18th.
I’d also strongly suggest checking the Pro Picks page throughout the day. That’s where Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets. Gill does a tremendous job handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game, which is a staple of our live VSiN programming. Also, while I try to write up as many of my plays as possible, I do occasionally add things to that page throughout the day. That’s also where I post plays for smaller ATP and WTA events, and my Challenger-level plays live exclusively on that page.
Ons Jabeur vs. Jasmine Paolini – Berlin
Jabeur hasn’t been playing her best tennis lately, but she’s a two-time Wimbledon runner-up. And throughout her career, the Tunisian is 41-17 on grass, which is good for a winning percentage of 70.7%. Jabeur’s ability to slice the ball and hit wicked dropshots makes her tough to beat on this surface, and I like that she has already played three matches on grass this week. Paolini hasn’t played a match on this surface since 2024, and she’s probably going to need some time to get adjusted after a long, successful clay season.
Of course, Paolini was the runner-up at Wimbledon last year, so she has proven that she can be effective on these quicker courts. But I do think her lack of variety will hurt her against such a skilled opponent. Also, Jabeur is a very tough player to face when you’re trying to ease your way into a tournament. Jabeur is going to keep Paolini on her toes from the very start of this match.
Normally, this would be a spot in which I’d look to take a first set moneyline, as a big part of the handicap is that Paolini won’t be ready for a player that has already gotten her feet wet on grass. But Jabeur is a bit of a slow starter. So, I’m just going to put some trust in the Tunisian to win, even if that means potentially coming back from a set down.
Bet: Jabeur ML (+134)
Alex Michelsen vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Halle
Michelsen cashed for us in a win over Francisco Cerundolo on Tuesday. That match was a little tougher than I thought it would be, but I do like the American to back it up with a win over Tsitsipas. Michelsen is actually 2-0 against Tsitsipas in his career, with one of those wins coming on the quick hard courts in Melbourne earlier in the year. Michelsen won that Australian Open match 7-5, 6-3, 2-6, 6-4, and it really wasn’t all that close. Now, I don’t see any reason he can’t beat Tsitsipas on grass.
Earlier this year, it looked like we were getting a bit of a Tsitsi-ssance, as he changed his racquet, starting hitting his backhand better and won a big title in Dubai. But Tsitsipas only went 8-5 on the European clay-court swing, and he’s usually extremely reliable on the dirt. The Greek star then needed three sets to pull out a 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (5) win over Luciano Darderi in his first match here. That’s rough considering the Italian is a clay-court specialist.
Tsitsipas just isn’t as precise as a server as he used to be, he’s not as dangerous as a returner and his backhand is still a huge weakness. That said, it’s hard to believe he’s even favored in this spot. Michelsen should have a lot of success getting into the backhand here.
Bet: Michelsen ML (+130)
2025 Record: 762-743-1 (+26.02 units)
