US Open 2023: Tennis best bets for Ben Shelton vs. Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz – Friday, September 8th

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Tennis best bets for the US Open – Friday, September 8th

The US Open is the final major of the year and it’s arguably the most exciting of the four Grand Slams. There’s just something special about this tournament being played in Flushing Meadows, New York, where the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center serves as one of the greatest venues in the sport. The drama of the night matches at Arthur Ashe Stadium can’t be replicated anywhere else. With that out of the way, I’m hoping to continue dishing out winners over the final few days of the tournament, so make sure you keep reading for my tennis best bets for Friday, September 8th. This story will cover the men’s semifinals. 

 

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Ben Shelton vs. Novak Djokovic

Djokovic is a -1600 favorite to beat Shelton in the semifinals, so that really limits our options when it comes to betting this match. But one thing that intrigues me is the +130 odds on the American to take a set. I’m not crazy enough to think that the 20-year-old can actually beat the 23-time Grand Slam champion here, but I do think there’s a chance his booming serve helps him steal a set. Djokovic can occasionally struggle with big servers, and not many do it as well as the lefty when he’s firing on all cylinders.

Shelton also happens to be returning at a high level at the US Open. That’s a part of his game that was really lacking the rest of the season, but he is getting his racquet on a lot of serves and asking questions of his opponents. With that in mind, I can’t rule out Djokovic giving up a loose service game and allowing the American to run away with a set.

It’s also hard to ignore that Djokovic can occasionally get frustrated with crowds. Sometimes he uses it as fuel and it makes his game stronger, but it can also get under his skin and cause him to play a little worse. It wouldn’t be crazy if the latter happens here, as this crowd is really going to want the young phenom to put up a fight. That said, I’d suggest putting a little something on this play at plus-money odds. This has been a very profitable tournament thus far, so we can afford to take a shot on a play like this.

Bet: Shelton +2.5 Sets (+130)

Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz

When these two met at Wimbledon, there were eight breaks of serve in only three sets. That was a 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 win for Alcaraz, and the breaks came on the most friendly service surface in the sport. It’s very hard to break a good server on grass courts, and both of these players are good servers. So, with that in mind, I expect there to be at least seven breaks in the slow, gritty conditions in New York. And another layer to that is that Medvedev should be a lot more competitive here than he was in London. Medvedev is one of the best hard-court players in the world, and he won this tournament back in 2021. If this match goes four or more sets, this would hit very easily.

Even if rain causes them to close the roof, I would still like this Over to hit. Sure, the conditions would start to favor the server, but these are the top-two players in the world when it comes to break percentage. Both make their opponents work extremely hard when it’s their turn to serve, so why would this one be any different? This has been a break-heavy tournament thus far and it’s time for this match to contribute to that. 

Bet: Over 6.5 Breaks of Serve (-135) 

2023 Overall Record: 282-254 (+46.03 units) 

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Zachary Cohen
Zach has been writing about betting since he was a student at the University of Wisconsin, which is when he started working with StatFox — and contributing to the weekly Platinum Sheet. His work has since been featured for brands like Covers, Sports Illustrated and Tennis Channel. Zach is extremely passionate about the NBA, but he does a bit of everything and has found a niche as a tennis handicapper. Outside of work, Zach likes nothing more than shooting around in an empty gym or watching bad comedies.