The 2026 tennis season reaches its peak with the 2026 US Open in New York, with the final Grand Slam of the year getting underway at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. The summer hard-court tune-ups are behind us, and now the margin for error disappears as the best players in the world battle across best-of-five and grueling best-of-three tests in the Flushing Meadows heat.
The fortnight always brings unmatched betting value on both tours, offering an early look at physical durability, tactical adjustments, and draw paths that could shape the championship picture. There is no shortage of high-level matchups to break down, and I’ll be delivering daily betting analysis and best bets throughout the tournament.
With that in mind, keep reading for my top tennis picks and best bets for Day 4 of the US Open on Wednesday, September 2.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Ben Shelton
Daniel Merida Aguilar vs. Andrey Rublev
I’ll tackle some more of my straights and totals when the order of play for Day 4 is out, so make sure you’re looking at the Pro Picks page for more of my action. However, I do like a parlay that consists of Hurkacz and Merida Aguilar winning sets, and both of those matches appear to be slated for Wednesday.
In the Hurkacz match, I just see it being an absolute hold-fest. Shelton dialed in his game after a slow start against Tallon Griekspoor last round, but the Dutchman’s level was miserable. Hurkacz should be able to do a bit better, even if that means holding on for a couple of tiebreakers and hoping for the best. This will be the first ever meeting between these two players, so we don’t have much history to draw on. But I like that Hurkacz won a Challenger in Cancun before heading to New York, picking up some much-needed victories and confidence. That’s enough for me to take him to win a set, which is something he has done in 10 of the last 12 matches he has played in New York.
In the other match, I legitimately think Rublev is on Upset Watch. There’s very little that suggests the Russian is a better player than Merida Aguilar right now, and Rublev also happens to be coming off a grueling five-setter. So, I’m using Merida Aguilar, who I feel has a pretty high floor in this match, to get the odds down on Hurkacz. I also might take a piece of him to win outright.
PARLAY: Hurkacz To Win A Set & Merida Aguilar To Win A Set (-145 – 1.5 units)
Sloane Stephens vs. Marta Kostyuk
Stephens got off to a shaky start for us against Clara Tauson last match, but she regrouped, got herself on track, and ultimately ended up winning in straight sets. Throughout the course of the match, Stephens displayed some fantastic movement and ball-striking. Now, it isn’t hard to envision her keeping things tight against Kostyuk.
One of the main reasons I felt Stephens’ game was in a good place was because of a 7-5, 7-5 loss to Kostyuk in Cincinnati. That was a match that easily could have gone either way, and I actually like the conditions in New York a little more for Stephens. With the hard courts in Flushing being a little stickier than the ones in Cincinnati, Stephens will have more time on the ball as a returner. That should allow her to put a ton of pressure on the Kostyuk serve. I also don’t worry too much about Stephens hitting through the court. As long as she’s not pummeling the ball into the net, she should have no problem hitting winners or getting forced errors out of her opponent.
Considering the way Stephens played Kostyuk a few weeks back, my favorite play in this one is Stephens +6.5 games. However, I’m also sprinkling the American to win a set, and I’m even taking the tiniest nibble of the moneyline price.
Bet: Stephens +6.5 Games (-145 – 1.5 units) & Stephens To Win A Set (+215 – 0.5 units) & Stephens ML (+740 – 0.1 units )
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
